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Fri Aug 29 5:30 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 3 of 40

Auxerre What If?

The Auxerre What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Auxerre What If?

Next Game - Nantes (0‑2)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 2 1 0 6 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 6%
Current Standings 1 1 0 3 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 10%
Lose Next Game 1 2 0 3 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 13%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 6%
Current Standings 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 10%
Worst Case Scenario 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 13%
Best Case Scenario
   Auxerre beats Nantes
 Worst Case Scenario
   Nantes beats Auxerre
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
32 of 32 100% 33 1 0 99 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 32 94% 31 3 0 93 >99% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 32 78% 26 8 0 78 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 32 66% 22 12 0 66 91% 9% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 32 63% 21 13 0 63 74% 23% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
19 of 32 59% 20 14 0 60 44% 41% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
18 of 32 56% 19 15 0 57 13% 35% 34% 15% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
17 of 32 53% 18 16 0 54 1% 7% 22% 33% 25% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
16 of 32 50% 17 17 0 51 <1% <1% 1% 6% 18% 30% 27% 14% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 32 47% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 23% 30% 23% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 32 44% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 12% 25% 30% 20% 7% 1% <1% <1%
13 of 32 41% 14 20 0 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 19% 32% 27% 12% 2%
12 of 32 38% 13 21 0 39 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 22% 36% 33%
11 of 32 34% 12 22 0 36 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 18% 79%
10 of 32 31% 11 23 0 33 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 97%
5 of 32 16% 6 28 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 32 0% 1 33 0 3 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff