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Sun Jan 4 5:45 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 23 of 40

Lille What If?

The Lille What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Lille What If?

Next Game - Paris SG (12‑2‑3)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 11 5 2 35 3% 10% 23% 28% 18% 10% 5% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 10 5 2 32 2% 6% 18% 27% 21% 14% 7% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 10 6 2 32 1% 5% 17% 27% 22% 15% 8% 4% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 3% 11% 25% 31% 16% 8% 4% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 2% 6% 18% 27% 21% 14% 7% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 4% 16% 26% 22% 16% 8% 4% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Lille beats Paris SG
   Le Havre beats Stade Rennais
   Brest beats Lyon
 Worst Case Scenario
   Paris SG beats Lille
   Stade Rennais beats Le Havre
   Lyon beats Brest
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
17 of 17 100% 27 5 2 83 92% 8% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 17 94% 26 6 2 80 73% 26% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 17 88% 25 7 2 77 43% 47% 10% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 17 82% 24 8 2 74 18% 50% 30% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 17 76% 23 9 2 71 5% 33% 52% 10% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 17 71% 22 10 2 68 1% 13% 53% 31% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 17 65% 21 11 2 65 <1% 3% 34% 51% 12% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 17 59% 20 12 2 62 <1% <1% 13% 49% 32% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 17 53% 19 13 2 59 <1% <1% 3% 26% 46% 22% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 17 47% 18 14 2 56 <1% <1% <1% 7% 33% 43% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
7 of 17 41% 17 15 2 53 <1% <1% <1% 1% 11% 36% 38% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
6 of 17 35% 16 16 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 12% 36% 36% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5 of 17 29% 15 17 2 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 11% 32% 36% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4 of 17 24% 14 18 2 44 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 27% 37% 22% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3 of 17 18% 13 19 2 41 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 19% 37% 28% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1%
2 of 17 12% 12 20 2 38 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 32% 35% 17% 3% <1% <1%
1 of 17 6% 11 21 2 35 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 24% 38% 25% 6% <1%
0 of 17 0% 10 22 2 32 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 39% 32% 10%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff