The Most Important Games for the Illinois St. Redbirds are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Redbirds final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Illinois St. Redbirds fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Illinois St. Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |||
| Illinois St. (14‑7) vs Murray State (16‑5) |
16 | Illinois St. Wins | 6% | 20% | 22% | 18% | 14% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 12% | 19% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Murray State Wins | 1% | 7% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Belmont (18‑3) vs Valparaiso (10‑10) |
2 | Belmont Wins | 3% | 12% | 20% | 19% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 12% | 19% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Valparaiso Wins | 4% | 12% | 18% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Southern Illinois (8‑12) vs Northern Iowa (13‑8) |
2 | Southern Illinois Wins | 3% | 12% | 21% | 19% | 16% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 12% | 19% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Northern Iowa Wins | 3% | 12% | 19% | 19% | 15% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Evansville (5‑15) vs Drake (11‑10) |
2 | Evansville Wins | 3% | 12% | 20% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 12% | 19% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Drake Wins | 3% | 12% | 19% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||