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Sun Jul 27 2:30 am

MLS - Week 25 of 35

San Diego FC What If?

The San Diego FC What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the San Diego FC play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

San Diego FC What If?

Next Game - Sporting KC (6‑12‑6)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 15 7 4 49 33% 32% 22% 10% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 14 7 4 46 27% 29% 24% 13% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 14 8 4 46 17% 27% 28% 18% 7% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 45% 29% 16% 7% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 27% 29% 24% 13% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 12% 27% 31% 20% 8% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   San Diego FC beats Sporting KC
   Earthquakes beats Whitecaps
   Rapids beats Minnesota United
 Worst Case Scenario
   Sporting KC beats San Diego FC
   Whitecaps beats Earthquakes
   Minnesota United beats Rapids
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
9 of 9 100% 23 7 4 73 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 9 89% 22 8 4 70 95% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 9 78% 21 9 4 67 78% 21% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 9 67% 20 10 4 64 47% 44% 8% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 9 56% 19 11 4 61 16% 47% 33% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
4 of 9 44% 18 12 4 58 2% 21% 49% 25% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
3 of 9 33% 17 13 4 55 <1% 3% 28% 46% 21% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2 of 9 22% 16 14 4 52 <1% <1% 4% 27% 45% 21% 3% <1% <1% <1%
1 of 9 11% 15 15 4 49 <1% <1% <1% 3% 23% 45% 25% 3% <1% <1%
0 of 9 0% 14 16 4 46 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 17% 44% 29% 8% 1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs