The Fresno State Bulldogs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Fresno State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Win Next Game | 3 | 0 | 28% | 20% | 16% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 2 | 0 | 25% | 19% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 2 | 1 | 13% | 18% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 34% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 25% | 19% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 13% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Fresno State beats Colorado St. Air Force beats UNLV |
Worst Case Scenario Colorado St. beats Fresno State UNLV beats Air Force |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ||
| 6 of 6 | 100% | 8 | 0 | 90% | 10% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 6 | 83% | 7 | 1 | 53% | 40% | 7% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 6 | 67% | 6 | 2 | 9% | 36% | 38% | 15% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 2% | 15% | 35% | 32% | 13% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 | 4 | X | X | <1% | 2% | 14% | 32% | 33% | 16% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 6 | 17% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 12% | 30% | 37% | 17% | 2% | <1% |
| 0 of 6 | 0% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 17% | 41% | 31% | 8% |