The New Mexico Lobos What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how New Mexico plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Win Next Game | 3 | 0 | 35% | 22% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 2 | 0 | 21% | 19% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 2 | 1 | 5% | 20% | 19% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 35% | 22% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 21% | 19% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 5% | 20% | 19% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario New Mexico beats North Dakota St. |
Worst Case Scenario North Dakota St. beats New Mexico |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | ||
| 6 of 6 | 100% | 8 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 6 | 83% | 7 | 1 | 73% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 6 | 67% | 6 | 2 | 24% | 49% | 22% | 4% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 3% | 22% | 42% | 28% | 6% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 | 4 | X | X | <1% | 5% | 29% | 46% | 19% | 1% | <1% | ^ |
| 1 of 6 | 17% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 22% | 59% | 17% | 1% | <1% |
| 0 of 6 | 0% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 28% | 55% | 16% | 1% |