The San Diego State Aztecs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how San Diego State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Win Next Game | 2 | 0 | 16% | 16% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 1 | 0 | 15% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 1 | 1 | 6% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 20% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 15% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 6% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Air Force beats UNLV San Diego State beats Nevada |
Worst Case Scenario UNLV beats Air Force Nevada beats San Diego State |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ||
| 7 of 7 | 100% | 8 | 0 | 88% | 12% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 7 | 86% | 7 | 1 | 49% | 43% | 8% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 7 | 71% | 6 | 2 | 8% | 34% | 39% | 16% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 7 | 57% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 2% | 16% | 35% | 32% | 13% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 7 | 43% | 4 | 4 | X | X | <1% | 2% | 14% | 32% | 34% | 15% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 7 | 29% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 13% | 33% | 36% | 15% | 2% | <1% |
| 1 of 7 | 14% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 19% | 39% | 33% | 6% |
| 0 of 7 | 0% | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 12% | 48% | 39% |