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Tue Jan 14 9:00 am

NCAA Basketball - Week 10 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers

A Line Mover is a team that

Simple put, if a line mover wins it conference tournament the cutline currently located between ranked teams 41 and 42 will move up one position, thus eliminating a team that would have received an NCAA Tournament bid based upon its rank. If your team is ranked on the bubble you want line-moving teams to lose in their conference tournament. The list contains 84 teams in 9 conferences, thus the cutline could theoretically move up 9 spots. The list size will quickly contract during the individual conference tournaments.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record Probability of Winning
Its Conference Tournament
W L
47 SMU ACCACC 77 12 4 7%
51 Wake Forest ACCACC 75 12 4 6%
61 Florida St. ACCACC 72 11 5 4%
65 Stanford ACCACC 71 11 5 4%
103 Virginia ACCACC 61 8 8 1%
117 N.C. State ACCACC 58 9 7 1%
131 Syracuse ACCACC 57 8 8 1%
145 Notre Dame ACCACC 54 8 9 <1%
148 California ACCACC 54 8 8 <1%
175 Boston College ACCACC 51 9 8 <1%
180 Georgia Tech ACCACC 49 8 9 <1%
184 Virginia Tech ACCACC 49 7 9 <1%
278 Miami ACCACC 33 4 12 <1%
 
71 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 69 10 4 12%
108 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 60 10 6 6%
119 Wichita St. American AthleticAm. Athletic 58 10 6 4%
129 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 57 9 8 4%
162 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 52 11 6 3%
169 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 51 11 7 2%
172 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 51 9 7 2%
198 E. Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 46 9 8 1%
222 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 42 9 8 1%
228 Texas-San Antonio American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 7 8 1%
272 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 34 8 9 <1%
283 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 33 6 10 <1%
 
48 Maryland Big 10Big 10 76 13 4 2%
50 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 76 10 6 2%
56 Penn State Big 10Big 10 73 12 5 2%
59 UCLA Big 10Big 10 72 11 6 1%
69 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 69 10 6 1%
73 USC Big 10Big 10 68 10 6 1%
91 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 65 9 8 <1%
97 Washington Big 10Big 10 63 10 7 <1%
139 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 55 8 9 <1%
 
43 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 78 10 5 5%
53 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 74 11 4 4%
72 Colorado Big 12Big 12 68 9 5 2%
78 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 67 10 5 2%
82 BYU Big 12Big 12 67 10 5 2%
87 TCU Big 12Big 12 66 9 6 2%
101 Utah Big 12Big 12 62 9 6 1%
109 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 60 9 6 1%
158 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 53 7 8 <1%
 
44 Creighton Big EastBig East 77 10 6 11%
57 Georgetown Big EastBig East 73 12 4 8%
89 Villanova Big EastBig East 65 11 6 4%
90 Xavier Big EastBig East 65 10 7 3%
102 Providence Big EastBig East 61 9 8 3%
155 Butler Big EastBig East 53 7 10 1%
167 DePaul Big EastBig East 52 9 8 1%
217 Seton Hall Big EastBig East 42 6 10 <1%
 
63 UC San Diego Big WestBig West 72 14 3 13%
124 Hawai'i Big WestBig West 57 11 5 10%
127 UC Riverside Big WestBig West 57 10 7 10%
152 UCSB Big WestBig West 53 11 5 10%
161 CSU Northridge Big WestBig West 52 11 6 8%
206 UC Davis Big WestBig West 44 9 8 8%
210 CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild Big WestBig West 44 9 9 8%
260 Cal Poly Big WestBig West 36 6 12 2%
269 Long Beach St. Big WestBig West 35 7 10 10%
318 CSU Fullerton Big WestBig West 26 5 13 1%
 
46 San Diego St. Mountain WestMntn West 77 10 4 15%
67 Boise St. Mountain WestMntn West 70 12 5 10%
96 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 63 10 6 6%
104 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 61 9 7 4%
112 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 59 9 7 4%
165 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 52 9 7 2%
223 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 42 8 10 <1%
291 Fresno St. Mountain WestMntn West 32 4 13 <1%
337 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 22 3 13 <1%
 
42 Vanderbilt SECSEC 79 13 3 1%
62 Arkansas SECSEC 72 11 5 1%
66 South Carolina SECSEC 70 10 6 1%
70 LSU SECSEC 69 11 5 <1%
74 Texas SECSEC 68 11 5 <1%
 
54 Washington St. West CoastWest Coast 74 13 5 14%
60 San Francisco West CoastWest Coast 72 14 5 12%
64 Santa Clara West CoastWest Coast 72 12 6 13%
83 Oregon St. West CoastWest Coast 67 13 5 8%
122 Loyola Marymount West CoastWest Coast 57 9 8 3%
232 Pepperdine West CoastWest Coast 40 7 10 <1%
297 Portland West CoastWest Coast 31 5 12 <1%
309 Pacific West CoastWest Coast 29 6 14 <1%
331 San Diego West CoastWest Coast 23 4 14 <1%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win its conference tournament
  • 50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - green number indicates the team controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny