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Mon Oct 19 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 7 of 18

Packers What If?

The Packers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Packers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Packers What If?

Next Game - Lions (3‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 5 2 0 4% 9% 2% <1% 26% 18% 13% 29%
Current Standings 4 2 0 3% 7% 1% <1% 21% 17% 12% 39%
Lose Next Game 4 3 0 2% 4% 1% <1% 18% 17% 14% 45%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 6% 11% 3% 1% 25% 16% 11% 28%
Current Standings 3% 7% 1% <1% 21% 17% 12% 39%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 4% 1% <1% 17% 18% 13% 47%
Best Case Scenario
   Patriots beats Bears
   Colts beats Vikings
   Packers beats Lions
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bears beats Patriots
   Vikings beats Colts
   Lions beats Packers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
11 of 11 100% 15 2 0 50% 34% X X 16% ^ ^ ^
10 of 11 91% 14 3 0 28% 39% 1% <1% 32% <1% ^ ^
9 of 11 82% 13 4 0 10% 29% 4% <1% 53% 3% <1% <1%
8 of 11 73% 12 5 0 2% 13% 6% 1% 59% 18% 1% <1%
7 of 11 64% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 3% 1% 41% 41% 10% 1%
6 of 11 55% 10 7 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% 13% 40% 33% 12%
5 of 11 45% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 14% 34% 51%
4 of 11 36% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 90%
3 of 11 27% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 11 18% 6 11 0 X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
1 of 11 9% 5 12 0 X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 11 0% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs