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Mon Sep 15 7:30 pm

Serie A - Week 5 of 40

Napoli What If?

The Napoli What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Napoli What If?

Next Game - Pisa (0‑2‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 4 0 0 12 18% 12% 10% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Current Standings 3 0 0 9 14% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4%
Lose Next Game 3 1 0 9 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 6%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 14% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4%
Current Standings 14% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4%
Worst Case Scenario 14% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4%
Best Case Scenario
   Parma beats Cremonese
 Worst Case Scenario
   Cremonese beats Parma
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
35 of 35 100% 38 0 0 114 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 35 86% 33 5 0 99 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 35 71% 28 10 0 84 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 35 60% 24 14 0 72 89% 10% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 35 57% 23 15 0 69 72% 25% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
19 of 35 54% 22 16 0 66 42% 41% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
18 of 35 51% 21 17 0 63 13% 34% 33% 15% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
17 of 35 49% 20 18 0 60 1% 7% 22% 31% 25% 10% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 35 46% 19 19 0 57 <1% <1% 1% 7% 19% 28% 25% 14% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 35 43% 18 20 0 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 10% 21% 28% 23% 11% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 35 40% 17 21 0 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 10% 22% 28% 23% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 35 37% 16 22 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 12% 24% 29% 20% 8% 2%
12 of 35 34% 15 23 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 22% 32% 35%
11 of 35 31% 14 24 0 42 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 13% 84%
10 of 35 29% 13 25 0 39 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
5 of 35 14% 8 30 0 24 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 35 0% 3 35 0 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Serie A Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round