The Lamar Cardinals What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Lamar plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 35% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 40% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | 2% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 44% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Best Case Scenario | 5% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 36% |
| Current Standings | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 40% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 3% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 44% |
|
Best Case Scenario UT-Rio Grande Valley beats Stephen F. Austin Houston Christian beats Texas A&M-Commerce Lamar beats Texas A&M C.C. |
Worst Case Scenario Stephen F. Austin beats UT-Rio Grande Valley Texas A&M-Commerce beats Houston Christian Texas A&M C.C. beats Lamar |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | ||
| 20 of 20 | 100% | 20 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 19 of 20 | 95% | 19 | 1 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 18 of 20 | 90% | 18 | 2 | 97% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 17 of 20 | 85% | 17 | 3 | 83% | 16% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 16 of 20 | 80% | 16 | 4 | 55% | 40% | 5% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 15 of 20 | 75% | 15 | 5 | 23% | 50% | 24% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 20 | 70% | 14 | 6 | 5% | 32% | 43% | 18% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 20 | 65% | 13 | 7 | 1% | 9% | 34% | 41% | 14% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 12 of 20 | 60% | 12 | 8 | <1% | 1% | 10% | 36% | 38% | 13% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 | 9 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 12% | 37% | 36% | 12% | 1% | <1% |
| 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 | 10 | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% | 39% | 34% | 10% | 1% |
| 9 of 20 | 45% | 9 | 11 | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 15% | 40% | 33% | 11% |
| 8 of 20 | 40% | 8 | 12 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 17% | 40% | 41% |
| 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 | 13 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 19% | 78% |
| 6 of 20 | 30% | 6 | 14 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 3% | 97% |
| 5 of 20 | 25% | 5 | 15 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 4 of 20 | 20% | 4 | 16 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 3 of 20 | 15% | 3 | 17 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 2 of 20 | 10% | 2 | 18 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 1 of 20 | 5% | 1 | 19 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 20 | 0% | 0 | 20 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |