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Tue Jun 9 1:00 am

WNBA - Week 6 of 21

Aces What If?

The Aces What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Aces play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Aces What If?

Next Game - Fire (6‑7)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 9 3 18% 16% 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 12%
Current Standings 8 3 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 15%
Lose Next Game 8 4 14% 15% 13% 11% 10% 8% 8% 7% 17%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 18% 16% 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 12%
Current Standings 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 15%
Worst Case Scenario 14% 15% 13% 11% 10% 8% 8% 7% 17%
Best Case Scenario
   Aces beats Fire
 Worst Case Scenario
   Fire beats Aces
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
33 of 33 100% 41 3 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 33 91% 38 6 99% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 33 85% 36 8 92% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 33 82% 35 9 81% 18% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 33 79% 34 10 67% 29% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
25 of 33 76% 33 11 51% 40% 8% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
24 of 33 73% 32 12 35% 46% 17% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
23 of 33 70% 31 13 20% 46% 27% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
22 of 33 67% 30 14 10% 36% 39% 14% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^
21 of 33 64% 29 15 4% 23% 41% 26% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 33 61% 28 16 1% 11% 33% 37% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 33 58% 27 17 <1% 3% 19% 37% 31% 10% 1% <1% <1%
18 of 33 55% 26 18 <1% 1% 6% 25% 37% 24% 6% 1% <1%
17 of 33 52% 25 19 <1% <1% 1% 11% 30% 35% 18% 4% <1%
16 of 33 48% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 33% 32% 14% 3%
15 of 33 45% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 19% 35% 29% 13%
14 of 33 42% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 24% 34% 34%
13 of 33 39% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 27% 62%
12 of 33 36% 20 24 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 14% 83%
10 of 33 30% 18 26 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
5 of 33 15% 13 31 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 33 0% 8 36 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs