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Sun Jun 28 10:00 pm

WNBA - Week 9 of 21

Aces What If?

The Aces What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Aces play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Aces What If?

Next Game - Sky (6‑13)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 15 5 32% 28% 16% 10% 7% 4% 2% 1% 1%
Current Standings 14 5 31% 27% 16% 10% 7% 4% 2% 1% 1%
Lose Next Game 14 6 25% 25% 17% 12% 9% 5% 3% 2% 1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 32% 28% 16% 10% 7% 4% 2% 1% 1%
Current Standings 31% 27% 16% 10% 7% 4% 2% 1% 1%
Worst Case Scenario 25% 25% 17% 12% 9% 5% 3% 2% 1%
Best Case Scenario
   Aces beats Sky
 Worst Case Scenario
   Sky beats Aces
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
25 of 25 100% 39 5 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 25 84% 35 9 89% 11% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 25 80% 34 10 77% 23% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 25 76% 33 11 61% 37% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
18 of 25 72% 32 12 42% 49% 9% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
17 of 25 68% 31 13 24% 52% 21% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
16 of 25 64% 30 14 11% 45% 35% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^
15 of 25 60% 29 15 4% 28% 42% 22% 4% <1% <1% <1% ^
14 of 25 56% 28 16 1% 13% 36% 35% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 25 52% 27 17 <1% 4% 20% 37% 29% 9% 1% <1% <1%
12 of 25 48% 26 18 <1% 1% 8% 26% 37% 23% 5% <1% <1%
11 of 25 44% 25 19 <1% <1% 1% 10% 30% 37% 18% 4% <1%
10 of 25 40% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 33% 35% 14% 3%
9 of 25 36% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 35% 32% 14%
8 of 25 32% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 19% 37% 39%
7 of 25 28% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 23% 72%
6 of 25 24% 20 24 X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 92%
5 of 25 20% 19 25 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
0 of 25 0% 14 30 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs