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Thu May 21 1:00 am

WNBA - Week 3 of 21

Fever What If?

The Fever What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fever play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Fever What If?

Next Game - Valkyries (2‑1)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 4 2 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 43%
Current Standings 3 2 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 45%
Lose Next Game 3 3 4% 6% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 47%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 45%
Current Standings 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 45%
Worst Case Scenario 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 45%
Best Case Scenario
   Valkyries beats Liberty
 Worst Case Scenario
   Liberty beats Valkyries
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
39 of 39 100% 42 2 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
35 of 39 90% 38 6 98% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
34 of 39 87% 37 7 93% 7% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
33 of 39 85% 36 8 81% 18% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
32 of 39 82% 35 9 64% 32% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
31 of 39 79% 34 10 46% 42% 11% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
30 of 39 77% 33 11 26% 47% 24% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
29 of 39 74% 32 12 12% 39% 36% 11% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
28 of 39 72% 31 13 5% 25% 41% 24% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^
27 of 39 69% 30 14 2% 13% 35% 36% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1%
26 of 39 67% 29 15 <1% 5% 23% 38% 27% 7% <1% <1% <1%
25 of 39 64% 28 16 <1% 1% 11% 32% 36% 17% 3% <1% <1%
24 of 39 62% 27 17 <1% <1% 4% 19% 38% 29% 9% 1% <1%
23 of 39 59% 26 18 <1% <1% 1% 9% 30% 37% 19% 4% <1%
22 of 39 56% 25 19 <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 36% 31% 11% 1%
21 of 39 54% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 27% 38% 22% 6%
20 of 39 51% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 14% 35% 34% 15%
19 of 39 49% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 24% 37% 32%
18 of 39 46% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 33% 52%
17 of 39 44% 20 24 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 22% 73%
16 of 39 41% 19 25 X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 11% 88%
15 of 39 38% 18 26 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 3% 97%
10 of 39 26% 13 31 X X X X X X X <1% >99%
5 of 39 13% 8 36 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 39 0% 3 41 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs