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Tue Jun 9 1:00 am

WNBA - Week 6 of 21

Fire What If?

The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Fire What If?

Next Game - Aces (8‑3)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 7 7 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 55%
Current Standings 6 7 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 8% 8% 9% 58%
Lose Next Game 6 8 <1% 1% 3% 4% 7% 7% 8% 9% 60%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 55%
Current Standings 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 8% 8% 9% 58%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 3% 4% 7% 7% 8% 9% 60%
Best Case Scenario
   Fire beats Aces
 Worst Case Scenario
   Aces beats Fire
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
31 of 31 100% 37 7 99% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 31 97% 36 8 96% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
29 of 31 94% 35 9 87% 12% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 31 90% 34 10 74% 24% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 31 87% 33 11 57% 36% 7% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
26 of 31 84% 32 12 37% 46% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
25 of 31 81% 31 13 21% 45% 28% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
24 of 31 77% 30 14 9% 35% 38% 16% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^
23 of 31 74% 29 15 3% 21% 39% 28% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1%
22 of 31 71% 28 16 1% 9% 31% 37% 18% 4% <1% <1% <1%
21 of 31 68% 27 17 <1% 3% 16% 34% 32% 12% 2% <1% <1%
20 of 31 65% 26 18 <1% 1% 5% 22% 37% 26% 8% 1% <1%
19 of 31 61% 25 19 <1% <1% 1% 9% 28% 36% 21% 5% <1%
18 of 31 58% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 31% 35% 16% 4%
17 of 31 55% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 34% 31% 14%
16 of 31 52% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 22% 35% 36%
15 of 31 48% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 27% 63%
14 of 31 45% 20 24 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 85%
10 of 31 32% 16 28 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 31 16% 11 33 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 31 0% 6 38 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs