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Thu May 21 1:00 am

WNBA - Week 3 of 21

Fire What If?

The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Fire What If?

Next Game - Tempo (3‑2)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 3 3 3% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 51%
Current Standings 2 3 2% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 53%
Lose Next Game 2 4 2% 4% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 54%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 3% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 52%
Current Standings 2% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 53%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 53%
Best Case Scenario
   Dream beats Wings
 Worst Case Scenario
   Wings beats Dream
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
39 of 39 100% 41 3 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
35 of 39 90% 37 7 89% 11% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
34 of 39 87% 36 8 78% 21% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
33 of 39 85% 35 9 61% 34% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
32 of 39 82% 34 10 41% 45% 13% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
31 of 39 79% 33 11 24% 47% 25% 4% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
30 of 39 77% 32 12 12% 38% 37% 12% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^
29 of 39 74% 31 13 4% 24% 41% 25% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^
28 of 39 72% 30 14 1% 12% 35% 36% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1%
27 of 39 69% 29 15 <1% 4% 22% 40% 26% 7% <1% <1% <1%
26 of 39 67% 28 16 <1% 1% 11% 32% 37% 16% 3% <1% <1%
25 of 39 64% 27 17 <1% <1% 4% 20% 38% 28% 9% 1% <1%
24 of 39 62% 26 18 <1% <1% 1% 9% 29% 38% 19% 3% <1%
23 of 39 59% 25 19 <1% <1% <1% 3% 18% 36% 31% 10% 1%
22 of 39 56% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 28% 38% 21% 5%
21 of 39 54% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 35% 33% 14%
20 of 39 51% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 25% 38% 30%
19 of 39 49% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 33% 51%
18 of 39 46% 20 24 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 23% 71%
17 of 39 44% 19 25 X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 11% 87%
16 of 39 41% 18 26 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 4% 95%
15 of 39 38% 17 27 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
10 of 39 26% 12 32 X X X X X X X <1% >99%
5 of 39 13% 7 37 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 39 0% 2 42 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs