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Tue Jun 9 1:00 am

WNBA - Week 6 of 21

Mercury What If?

The Mercury What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Mercury play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Mercury What If?

Next Game - Valkyries (6‑5)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 5 8 <1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 8% 8% 66%
Current Standings 4 8 <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 70%
Lose Next Game 4 9 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 8% 73%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 8% 8% 66%
Current Standings <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 70%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 8% 73%
Best Case Scenario
   Mercury beats Valkyries
 Worst Case Scenario
   Valkyries beats Mercury
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
32 of 32 100% 36 8 86% 14% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
31 of 32 97% 35 9 76% 23% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 32 94% 34 10 64% 33% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
29 of 32 91% 33 11 47% 42% 10% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
28 of 32 88% 32 12 31% 48% 19% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
27 of 32 84% 31 13 18% 44% 30% 7% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
26 of 32 81% 30 14 8% 34% 39% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^
25 of 32 78% 29 15 3% 20% 39% 29% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1%
24 of 32 75% 28 16 1% 9% 29% 38% 20% 4% <1% <1% <1%
23 of 32 72% 27 17 <1% 3% 16% 35% 32% 13% 2% <1% <1%
22 of 32 69% 26 18 <1% 1% 6% 23% 37% 26% 8% 1% <1%
21 of 32 66% 25 19 <1% <1% 1% 10% 28% 36% 21% 5% <1%
20 of 32 63% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 31% 34% 16% 4%
19 of 32 59% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 33% 30% 14%
18 of 32 56% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 22% 35% 36%
17 of 32 53% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 28% 62%
16 of 32 50% 20 24 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 85%
15 of 32 47% 19 25 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 96%
10 of 32 31% 14 30 X X X X X X X <1% >99%
5 of 32 16% 9 35 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 32 0% 4 40 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs