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Tue Jun 9 1:00 am

WNBA - Week 6 of 21

Sparks What If?

The Sparks What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Sparks play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Sparks What If?

Next Game - Storm (3‑10)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 6 6 1% 3% 5% 7% 8% 7% 9% 8% 52%
Current Standings 5 6 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 55%
Lose Next Game 5 7 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 59%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 1% 3% 5% 7% 8% 7% 9% 8% 52%
Current Standings 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 55%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 59%
Best Case Scenario
   Sparks beats Storm
 Worst Case Scenario
   Storm beats Sparks
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
33 of 33 100% 38 6 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
31 of 33 94% 36 8 93% 7% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 33 91% 35 9 83% 16% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
29 of 33 88% 34 10 69% 28% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 33 85% 33 11 52% 40% 8% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
27 of 33 82% 32 12 34% 46% 18% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
26 of 33 79% 31 13 19% 44% 30% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^
25 of 33 76% 30 14 9% 34% 39% 16% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^
24 of 33 73% 29 15 4% 19% 39% 29% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1%
23 of 33 70% 28 16 1% 9% 29% 37% 19% 4% <1% <1% <1%
22 of 33 67% 27 17 <1% 3% 17% 35% 32% 12% 2% <1% <1%
21 of 33 64% 26 18 <1% 1% 6% 23% 38% 24% 7% 1% <1%
20 of 33 61% 25 19 <1% <1% 1% 9% 29% 36% 20% 5% <1%
19 of 33 58% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 32% 33% 15% 3%
18 of 33 55% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 29% 13%
17 of 33 52% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 22% 37% 34%
16 of 33 48% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 28% 61%
15 of 33 45% 20 24 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 84%
10 of 33 30% 15 29 X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
5 of 33 15% 10 34 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 33 0% 5 39 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs