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Thu May 21 1:00 am

WNBA - Week 3 of 21

Storm What If?

The Storm What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Storm play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Storm What If?

Next Game - Sun (1‑5)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 2 4 1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 66%
Current Standings 1 4 1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 66%
Lose Next Game 1 5 <1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 69%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 66%
Current Standings 1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 66%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 69%
Best Case Scenario
   Storm beats Sun
 Worst Case Scenario
   Sun beats Storm
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
39 of 39 100% 40 4 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
36 of 39 92% 37 7 93% 7% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
35 of 39 90% 36 8 82% 17% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
34 of 39 87% 35 9 67% 30% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
33 of 39 85% 34 10 47% 43% 10% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
32 of 39 82% 33 11 28% 46% 22% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
31 of 39 79% 32 12 14% 40% 35% 10% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
30 of 39 77% 31 13 6% 27% 41% 22% 4% <1% <1% <1% ^
29 of 39 74% 30 14 2% 14% 36% 35% 12% 1% <1% <1% <1%
28 of 39 72% 29 15 <1% 6% 24% 39% 26% 6% <1% <1% <1%
27 of 39 69% 28 16 <1% 2% 11% 32% 37% 16% 2% <1% <1%
26 of 39 67% 27 17 <1% <1% 4% 20% 38% 29% 8% 1% <1%
25 of 39 64% 26 18 <1% <1% 1% 9% 29% 38% 19% 3% <1%
24 of 39 62% 25 19 <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 36% 31% 11% 1%
23 of 39 59% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 27% 37% 22% 5%
22 of 39 56% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 35% 34% 14%
21 of 39 54% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 24% 38% 31%
20 of 39 51% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 34% 51%
19 of 39 49% 20 24 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 22% 73%
18 of 39 46% 19 25 X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 11% 88%
15 of 39 38% 16 28 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
10 of 39 26% 11 33 X X X X X X X X 100%
5 of 39 13% 6 38 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 39 0% 1 43 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs