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Tue Jun 9 1:00 am

WNBA - Week 6 of 21

Sun What If?

The Sun What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Sun play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Sun What If?

Next Game - Tempo (6‑5)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 3 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 96%
Current Standings 2 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 97%
Lose Next Game 2 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 97%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 96%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 97%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 97%
Best Case Scenario
   Sun beats Tempo
 Worst Case Scenario
   Tempo beats Sun
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
31 of 31 100% 33 11 58% 36% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
30 of 31 97% 32 12 40% 45% 14% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
29 of 31 94% 31 13 24% 45% 26% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
28 of 31 90% 30 14 12% 37% 37% 12% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^
27 of 31 87% 29 15 5% 26% 40% 24% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1%
26 of 31 84% 28 16 2% 13% 33% 35% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1%
25 of 31 81% 27 17 <1% 5% 21% 37% 27% 8% 1% <1% <1%
24 of 31 77% 26 18 <1% 1% 9% 27% 37% 21% 5% <1% <1%
23 of 31 74% 25 19 <1% <1% 2% 14% 33% 33% 16% 3% <1%
22 of 31 71% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 34% 31% 12% 2%
21 of 31 68% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 21% 36% 26% 10%
20 of 31 65% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 24% 36% 33%
19 of 31 61% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 28% 61%
18 of 31 58% 20 24 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 86%
15 of 31 48% 17 27 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
10 of 31 32% 12 32 X X X X X X X X 100%
5 of 31 16% 7 37 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 31 0% 2 42 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs