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Thu Sep 11 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 2 of 18

Buccaneers What If?

The Buccaneers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Buccaneers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Buccaneers What If?

Next Game - Texans (0‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 0 0 16% 13% 13% 12% 4% 5% 5% 31%
Current Standings 1 0 0 15% 12% 13% 12% 4% 5% 5% 34%
Lose Next Game 1 1 0 10% 12% 13% 14% 4% 5% 5% 37%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 16% 13% 13% 12% 4% 5% 5% 31%
Current Standings 15% 12% 13% 12% 4% 5% 5% 34%
Worst Case Scenario 10% 12% 14% 13% 4% 5% 5% 38%
Best Case Scenario
   Titans beats Rams
   Buccaneers beats Texans
 Worst Case Scenario
   Rams beats Titans
   Texans beats Buccaneers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
16 of 16 100% 17 0 0 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 16 94% 16 1 0 90% 10% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
14 of 16 88% 15 2 0 67% 30% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
13 of 16 81% 14 3 0 33% 46% 17% 2% 2% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 16 75% 13 4 0 10% 36% 38% 9% 6% 1% <1% <1%
11 of 16 69% 12 5 0 1% 15% 39% 24% 13% 6% 1% <1%
10 of 16 63% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 24% 34% 12% 17% 8% 2%
9 of 16 56% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 9% 32% 5% 17% 22% 15%
8 of 16 50% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 22% 1% 7% 19% 48%
7 of 16 44% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 12% <1% 1% 7% 79%
6 of 16 38% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% <1% 1% 94%
5 of 16 31% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
4 of 16 25% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 16 19% 4 13 0 X X <1% <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 16 13% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 16 6% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 16 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs