The Chargers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chargers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | 44% | 22% | 14% | 17% |
| Current Standings | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | 41% | 21% | 14% | 21% |
| Lose Next Game | 5 | 4 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | 30% | 21% | 16% | 32% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 38% | 21% | 15% | 19% |
| Current Standings | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | 41% | 21% | 14% | 21% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | 28% | 22% | 17% | 31% |
|
Best Case Scenario Broncos beats Chiefs Commanders beats Steelers Chargers beats Titans |
Worst Case Scenario Chiefs beats Broncos Steelers beats Commanders Titans beats Chargers |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 9 of 9 | 100% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 15% | 2% | <1% | 49% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 9 | 89% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 6% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 78% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 9 | 78% | 12 | 5 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 87% | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 of 9 | 67% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 66% | 29% | 3% | <1% |
| 5 of 9 | 56% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 26% | 49% | 22% | 3% |
| 4 of 9 | 44% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 25% | 43% | 29% |
| 3 of 9 | 33% | 8 | 9 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 19% | 78% |
| 2 of 9 | 22% | 7 | 10 | 0 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 99% |
| 1 of 9 | 11% | 6 | 11 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 9 | 0% | 5 | 12 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |