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Fri Oct 2 12:30 am

NFL - Week 4 of 18

Falcons What If?

The Falcons What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Falcons play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Falcons What If?

Next Game - Saints (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 2 0 2% 3% 8% 13% 2% 4% 5% 64%
Current Standings 1 2 0 1% 3% 6% 11% 2% 3% 4% 70%
Lose Next Game 1 3 0 <1% 2% 4% 9% 2% 3% 4% 75%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 2% 3% 8% 13% 2% 4% 5% 64%
Current Standings 1% 3% 6% 11% 2% 3% 4% 70%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 2% 4% 9% 2% 3% 4% 75%
Best Case Scenario
   Falcons beats Saints
 Worst Case Scenario
   Saints beats Falcons
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
14 of 14 100% 15 2 0 88% 11% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 14 3 0 51% 41% 7% <1% 1% <1% <1% ^
12 of 14 86% 13 4 0 16% 44% 30% 5% 4% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 14 79% 12 5 0 2% 19% 43% 21% 11% 4% <1% <1%
10 of 14 71% 11 6 0 <1% 4% 28% 35% 11% 14% 7% 1%
9 of 14 64% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 9% 36% 4% 16% 20% 15%
8 of 14 57% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 25% 1% 5% 16% 52%
7 of 14 50% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 12% <1% 1% 4% 83%
6 of 14 43% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 4% <1% <1% <1% 96%
5 of 14 36% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
4 of 14 29% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 14 21% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X X >99%
2 of 14 14% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 14 7% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs