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Thu Oct 29 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 8 of 18

Packers What If?

The Packers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Packers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Packers What If?

Next Game - Patriots (4‑3)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 6 3 0 3% 4% <1% <1% 22% 22% 17% 33%
Current Standings 5 3 0 2% 3% <1% <1% 18% 19% 16% 40%
Lose Next Game 5 4 0 1% 2% <1% <1% 15% 19% 17% 46%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 2% 3% 1% <1% 19% 20% 16% 39%
Current Standings 2% 3% <1% <1% 18% 19% 16% 40%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 3% 1% <1% 18% 20% 16% 41%
Best Case Scenario
   Chargers beats Rams
 Worst Case Scenario
   Rams beats Chargers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
9 of 9 100% 14 3 0 33% 23% <1% X 43% <1% ^ ^
8 of 9 89% 13 4 0 11% 19% 1% <1% 62% 7% <1% ^
7 of 9 78% 12 5 0 2% 8% 2% <1% 58% 27% 3% <1%
6 of 9 67% 11 6 0 <1% 1% 1% <1% 31% 48% 18% 2%
5 of 9 56% 10 7 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 34% 40% 19%
4 of 9 44% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 8% 29% 63%
3 of 9 33% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 95%
2 of 9 22% 7 10 0 X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
1 of 9 11% 6 11 0 X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
0 of 9 0% 5 12 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs