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Fri Oct 2 12:30 am

NFL - Week 4 of 18

Vikings What If?

The Vikings What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Vikings play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Vikings What If?

Next Game - Dolphins (0‑3)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 0 0 30% 13% 6% 3% 13% 9% 7% 20%
Current Standings 3 0 0 29% 12% 5% 3% 13% 9% 7% 22%
Lose Next Game 3 1 0 22% 12% 6% 3% 14% 10% 7% 26%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 33% 12% 5% 3% 12% 8% 7% 19%
Current Standings 29% 12% 5% 3% 13% 9% 7% 22%
Worst Case Scenario 21% 12% 6% 3% 14% 9% 8% 27%
Best Case Scenario
   Jets beats Bears
   Vikings beats Dolphins
   Broncos beats Forty-Niners
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bears beats Jets
   Dolphins beats Vikings
   Forty-Niners beats Broncos
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
14 of 14 100% 17 0 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 16 1 0 98% 1% <1% X <1% ^ ^ ^
12 of 14 86% 15 2 0 85% 13% <1% <1% 1% <1% ^ ^
11 of 14 79% 14 3 0 55% 33% 3% <1% 9% <1% <1% ^
10 of 14 71% 13 4 0 21% 38% 14% 1% 25% 2% <1% <1%
9 of 14 64% 12 5 0 4% 20% 20% 5% 35% 14% 2% <1%
8 of 14 57% 11 6 0 <1% 4% 13% 10% 26% 32% 12% 2%
7 of 14 50% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 3% 8% 9% 28% 32% 19%
6 of 14 43% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 4% 1% 9% 25% 60%
5 of 14 36% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 7% 90%
4 of 14 29% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
3 of 14 21% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 14 14% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
1 of 14 7% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs