The SMU Mustangs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how SMU plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
| Win Next Game | 5 | 1 | 10% | 29% | 24% | 17% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 4 | 1 | 9% | 25% | 20% | 16% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Lose Next Game | 4 | 2 | 4% | 17% | 12% | 17% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 11% | 34% | 24% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 9% | 25% | 20% | 16% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Worst Case Scenario | 3% | 16% | 11% | 20% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
|
Best Case Scenario SMU beats Syracuse Stanford beats Louisville Virginia beats Wake Forest |
Worst Case Scenario Syracuse beats SMU Louisville beats Stanford Wake Forest beats Virginia |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | ||
| 4 of 4 | 100% | 8 | 1 | 42% | 58% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 4 | 75% | 7 | 2 | 9% | 58% | 24% | 8% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 4 | 50% | 6 | 3 | <1% | 5% | 29% | 39% | 21% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 4 | 25% | 5 | 4 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 18% | 26% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 0 of 4 | 0% | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 16% | 23% | 24% | 19% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |