Memphis Tigers What If?

	Resultant Record		Regular Season Finish
	W	L	1^* First, Second, and Third Round Byes	2^* First, Second, and Third Round Byes	3^** First and Second Round Byes	4^** First and Second Round Byes	5^*** First Round Bye	6^*** First Round Bye	7	8	9	10	NT
Win Next Game	8	7	X	X	1%	7%	18%	17%	23%	18%	13%	4%	<1%
Current Standings	7	7	X	X	<1%	4%	12%	13%	19%	18%	20%	11%	4%
Lose Next Game	7	8	X	X	X	1%	7%	10%	16%	18%	27%	17%	6%

	Regular Season Finish
	1^* First, Second, and Third Round Byes	2^* First, Second, and Third Round Byes	3^** First and Second Round Byes	4^** First and Second Round Byes	5^*** First Round Bye	6^*** First Round Bye	7	8	9	10	NT
Best Case Scenario	X	X	1%	11%	18%	15%	16%	16%	16%	7%	<1%
Current Standings	X	X	<1%	4%	12%	13%	19%	18%	20%	11%	4%
Worst Case Scenario	X	X	X	<1%	5%	9%	18%	21%	28%	14%	6%
Best Case Scenario Memphis beats Wichita St. South Florida beats Tulane North Texas beats UAB						Worst Case Scenario Wichita St. beats Memphis Tulane beats South Florida UAB beats North Texas

Notes
Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three

Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	Resultant Record		Regular Season Finish
Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	W	L	1^* First, Second, and Third Round Byes	2^* First, Second, and Third Round Byes	3^** First and Second Round Byes	4^** First and Second Round Byes	5^*** First Round Bye	6^*** First Round Bye	7	8	9	10	NT
4 of 4	100%	11	7	X	X	6%	49%	44%	1%	^	^	^	^	^
3 of 4	75%	10	8	X	X	<1%	7%	49%	32%	12%	<1%	^	^	^
2 of 4	50%	9	9	X	X	X	X	3%	20%	42%	28%	6%	1%	^
1 of 4	25%	8	10	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	3%	25%	54%	18%	1%
0 of 4	0%	7	11	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1%	16%	53%	31%

Notes
^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
Table Sorting Method
* denotes first, second, and third round byes in the post season conference tournament
** denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
*** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament

American Athletic Basketball - Week 17 of 18