The Most Important Games for the Penn State Nittany Lions are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Nittany Lions final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Penn State Nittany Lions fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Penn State Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| Penn State (9‑5) vs Michigan (12‑0) |
26 | Penn State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% |
| Current Probabilities | 10% | 8% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | ||
| Michigan Wins | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | ||
| Michigan St. (13‑2) vs NorthwesternN. Western (8‑6) |
2 | Michigan St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | 13% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | ||
| NorthwesternN. Western Wins | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | ||
| Purdue (13‑1) vs Washington (9‑5) |
2 | Purdue Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | 13% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | ||
| Washington Wins | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 7% | ||
| Maryland (7‑6) vs Indiana (11‑3) |
1 | Maryland Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | 14% | 15% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | ||
| Indiana Wins | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | ||
| Illinois (11‑3) vs Rutgers (8‑7) |
1 | Illinois Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 13% |
| Current Probabilities | 13% | 13% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | ||
| Rutgers Wins | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | ||
| Iowa (12‑2) vs Minnesota (9‑5) |
1 | Iowa Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | 13% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | ||
| Minnesota Wins | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | ||
| Oregon (8‑7) vs Ohio St. (10‑4) |
1 | Oregon Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | 14% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | ||
| Ohio St. Wins | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | ||
| UCLA (10‑4) vs Wisconsin (9‑5) |
1 | UCLA Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | 13% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | ||
| Wisconsin Wins | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | ||