The Most Important Games for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Lumberjacks final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Northern Arizona Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6* First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||
| Northern Arizona (5‑7) vs Montana (6‑7) |
12 | Northern Arizona Wins | 4% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 9% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | ||
| Montana Wins | 2% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 16% | ||
| Northern Colorado (9‑3) vs Montana St. (6‑7) |
1 | Northern Colorado Wins | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 13% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | ||
| Montana St. Wins | 3% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14% | ||
| Idaho (8‑4) vs Eastern Washington (2‑11) |
1 | Idaho Wins | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 13% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | ||
| Eastern Washington Wins | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 15% | ||
| Weber St. (6‑7) vs Portland St. (6‑5) |
0 | Weber St. Wins | 3% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | ||
| Portland St. Wins | 3% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 13% | ||
| Sacramento St. (4‑8) vs Idaho St. (7‑6) |
0 | Sacramento St. Wins | 3% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | ||
| Idaho St. Wins | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 14% | ||