The Most Important Games for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Lumberjacks final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Northern Arizona Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6* First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||
| Northern Arizona (15‑13) vs Eastern Washington (10‑17) |
33 | Northern Arizona Wins | X | X | <1% | 2% | 11% | 26% | 45% | 16% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 32% | 40% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Eastern Washington Wins | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 5% | 13% | 77% | 4% | <1% | ||
| Montana (19‑8) vs Montana St. (12‑15) |
8 | Montana Wins | X | X | <1% | 2% | 8% | 19% | 30% | 39% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 32% | 40% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Montana St. Wins | X | X | <1% | <1% | 4% | 17% | 37% | 41% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Northern Colorado (20‑8) vs Idaho (12‑15) |
8 | Northern Colorado Wins | X | X | <1% | 2% | 8% | 19% | 31% | 40% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 32% | 40% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Idaho Wins | X | X | <1% | <1% | 5% | 15% | 37% | 40% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Sacramento St. (7‑20) vs Idaho St. (12‑13) |
3 | Sacramento St. Wins | X | X | <1% | 2% | 9% | 18% | 30% | 39% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 32% | 40% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Idaho St. Wins | X | X | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 33% | 40% | 2% | ^ | ||
| Weber St. (9‑19) vs Portland St. (16‑11) |
1 | Weber St. Wins | X | X | <1% | 1% | 7% | 19% | 32% | 37% | 4% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 32% | 40% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Portland St. Wins | X | X | X | 1% | 7% | 18% | 32% | 41% | <1% | <1% | ||