The Most Important Games for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Lumberjacks final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Northern Arizona Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6* First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||
| Northern Arizona (10‑7) vs Sacramento St. (5‑11) |
14 | Northern Arizona Wins | 2% | 5% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 5% |
| Current Probabilities | 2% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | ||
| Sacramento St. Wins | 1% | 3% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | ||
| Montana (10‑7) vs Weber St. (7‑10) |
2 | Montana Wins | 2% | 5% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% |
| Current Probabilities | 2% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | ||
| Weber St. Wins | 2% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 8% | ||
| Northern Colorado (12‑5) vs Portland St. (10‑6) |
1 | Northern Colorado Wins | 1% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% |
| Current Probabilities | 2% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | ||
| Portland St. Wins | 2% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 8% | ||
| Eastern Washington (6‑11) vs Idaho (7‑10) |
0 | Eastern Washington Wins | 2% | 5% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% |
| Current Probabilities | 2% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | ||
| Idaho Wins | 2% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 8% | ||
| Montana St. (6‑11) vs Idaho St. (6‑8) |
0 | Montana St. Wins | 1% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% |
| Current Probabilities | 2% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | ||
| Idaho St. Wins | 2% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 8% | ||