The Most Important Games for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Lumberjacks final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Northern Arizona Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6* First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||
| Northern Arizona (6‑12) vs Portland St. (10‑5) |
4 | Northern Arizona Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 18% | 29% | 36% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 27% | 49% | ||
| Portland St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 26% | 52% | ||
| Sacramento St. (5‑11) vs Northern Colorado (11‑7) |
1 | Sacramento St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 12% | 26% | 52% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 27% | 49% | ||
| Northern Colorado Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 14% | 27% | 49% | ||
| Eastern Washington (3‑14) vs Idaho St. (10‑8) |
0 | Eastern Washington Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 12% | 24% | 54% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 27% | 49% | ||
| Idaho St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 27% | 49% | ||
| Montana St. (9‑8) vs Montana (9‑8) |
0 | Montana St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 26% | 50% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 27% | 49% | ||
| Montana Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 27% | 50% | ||
| Weber St. (10‑8) vs Idaho (10‑7) |
0 | Weber St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 27% | 49% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 27% | 49% | ||
| Idaho Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 13% | 27% | 50% | ||