The Most Important Games for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Lumberjacks final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Northern Arizona Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6* First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||
| Northern Arizona (4‑1) vs Idaho St. (2‑4) |
7 | Northern Arizona Wins | 20% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 3% | ||
| Idaho St. Wins | 14% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 4% | ||
| Northern Colorado (4‑2) vs Weber St. (1‑3) |
1 | Northern Colorado Wins | 18% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 3% | ||
| Weber St. Wins | 20% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 4% | ||
| Montana (2‑3) vs Eastern Washington (1‑4) |
0 | Montana Wins | 19% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 3% | ||
| Eastern Washington Wins | 19% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 3% | ||
| Idaho (2‑3) vs Montana St. (1‑4) |
0 | Idaho Wins | 19% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 3% | ||
| Montana St. Wins | 19% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 3% | ||
| Portland St. (2‑1) vs Sacramento St. (1‑3) |
0 | Portland St. Wins | 18% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 3% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 3% | ||
| Sacramento St. Wins | 19% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 3% | ||