The Most Important Games for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Lumberjacks final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Northern Arizona Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6* First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||
| Northern Arizona (9‑15) vs Weber St. (11‑13) |
10 | Northern Arizona Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 19% | 25% | 31% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 25% | 45% | ||
| Weber St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 26% | 53% | ||
| Portland St. (15‑6) vs Sacramento St. (9‑13) |
2 | Portland St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 15% | 25% | 44% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 25% | 45% | ||
| Sacramento St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 16% | 25% | 46% | ||
| Montana St. (14‑10) vs Eastern Washington (6‑17) |
1 | Montana St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 16% | 25% | 43% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 25% | 45% | ||
| Eastern Washington Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 24% | 50% | ||
| Idaho St. (10‑14) vs Northern Colorado (14‑10) |
1 | Idaho St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 22% | 49% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 25% | 45% | ||
| Northern Colorado Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 17% | 27% | 42% | ||
| Montana (13‑11) vs Idaho (13‑10) |
1 | Montana Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 26% | 44% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 25% | 45% | ||
| Idaho Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 16% | 25% | 45% | ||