The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Northern Arizona plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6* First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 20% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 19% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 3% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | 14% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 4% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6* First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 20% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% |
| Current Standings | 19% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 3% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 14% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 4% |
|
Best Case Scenario Northern Arizona beats Idaho St. |
Worst Case Scenario Idaho St. beats Northern Arizona |
|||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6* First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | ||
| 18 of 18 | 100% | 18 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 17 of 18 | 94% | 17 | 1 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 16 of 18 | 89% | 16 | 2 | 96% | 4% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 15 of 18 | 83% | 15 | 3 | 80% | 20% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 18 | 78% | 14 | 4 | 49% | 45% | 5% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 | 5 | 18% | 54% | 26% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 18 | 67% | 12 | 6 | 4% | 30% | 48% | 17% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 | 7 | <1% | 7% | 36% | 43% | 13% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 18 | 56% | 10 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 10% | 40% | 39% | 10% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 18 | 50% | 9 | 9 | X | <1% | 1% | 14% | 42% | 35% | 8% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 8 of 18 | 44% | 8 | 10 | X | X | <1% | 1% | 17% | 44% | 32% | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 of 18 | 39% | 7 | 11 | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 20% | 45% | 28% | 5% | <1% |
| 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 | 12 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 25% | 46% | 24% | 3% |
| 5 of 18 | 28% | 5 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 4% | 31% | 48% | 17% |
| 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 | 14 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 8% | 45% | 47% |
| 3 of 18 | 17% | 3 | 15 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 1% | 22% | 78% |
| 2 of 18 | 11% | 2 | 16 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 5% | 95% |
| 1 of 18 | 6% | 1 | 17 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 18 | 0% | 0 | 18 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |