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Sun Jan 12 11:45 am

Coastal Basketball - Week 10 of 17

N. Carolina A&T What If?

The N. Carolina A&T Aggies What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how N. Carolina A&T plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

N. Carolina A&T What If?

Next Game - Monmouth (4‑13)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
Win Next Game 1 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 8% 16% 29% 41%
Current Standings 0 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 5% 12% 28% 50%
Lose Next Game 0 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 8% 29% 59%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 8% 16% 29% 41%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 5% 12% 28% 50%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 8% 29% 59%
Best Case Scenario
   N. Carolina A&T beats Monmouth
 Worst Case Scenario
   Monmouth beats N. Carolina A&T
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
13 of 13 100% 13 5 34% 46% 18% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 13 92% 12 6 6% 27% 39% 22% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 13 85% 11 7 <1% 3% 17% 33% 31% 13% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 13 77% 10 8 <1% <1% 1% 7% 22% 34% 26% 9% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
9 of 13 69% 9 9 X X <1% <1% 2% 10% 27% 35% 20% 6% 1% <1% ^ ^
8 of 13 62% 8 10 X X X <1% <1% <1% 4% 16% 33% 32% 13% 2% <1% <1%
7 of 13 54% 7 11 X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 4% <1%
6 of 13 46% 6 12 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 5% 24% 42% 26% 3%
5 of 13 38% 5 13 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 4% 26% 51% 18%
4 of 13 31% 4 14 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 6% 47% 47%
3 of 13 23% 3 15 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 21% 78%
2 of 13 15% 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X 5% 95%
1 of 13 8% 1 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 13 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament