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Mon Sep 29 6:00 pm

English Premier League - Week 8 of 41

Arsenal What If?

The Arsenal What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Arsenal What If?

Next Game - West Ham (1‑4‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 5 1 1 16 38% 24% 14% 9% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 4 1 1 13 38% 23% 14% 9% 6% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 4 2 1 13 30% 24% 16% 10% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 42% 22% 13% 8% 5% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 38% 23% 14% 9% 6% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 30% 24% 16% 10% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Arsenal beats West Ham
   Chelsea beats Liverpool
   Brentford beats Manchester City
 Worst Case Scenario
   West Ham beats Arsenal
   Liverpool beats Chelsea
   Manchester City beats Brentford
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
32 of 32 100% 36 1 1 109 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 32 94% 34 3 1 103 99% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 32 88% 32 5 1 97 90% 10% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 32 84% 31 6 1 94 80% 20% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 32 81% 30 7 1 91 65% 32% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 32 78% 29 8 1 88 48% 43% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 32 75% 28 9 1 85 31% 48% 19% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 32 72% 27 10 1 82 17% 43% 31% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 32 69% 26 11 1 79 7% 31% 39% 19% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 32 66% 25 12 1 76 3% 17% 38% 31% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 32 63% 24 13 1 73 1% 7% 26% 37% 22% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 32 59% 23 14 1 70 <1% 2% 13% 31% 34% 17% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 32 56% 22 15 1 67 <1% <1% 4% 17% 33% 30% 13% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
17 of 32 53% 21 16 1 64 <1% <1% 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
16 of 32 50% 20 17 1 61 <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 22% 33% 25% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 32 47% 19 18 1 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 22% 33% 24% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 32 44% 18 19 1 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 22% 32% 24% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 32 41% 17 20 1 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 21% 32% 26% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 32 38% 16 21 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 19% 31% 27% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 32 34% 15 22 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 17% 31% 29% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 32 31% 14 23 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 15% 29% 31% 16% 4% 1% <1%
9 of 32 28% 13 24 1 40 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 13% 29% 32% 18% 5% 1%
8 of 32 25% 12 25 1 37 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 29% 34% 19% 5%
7 of 32 22% 11 26 1 34 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 30% 35% 22%
6 of 32 19% 10 27 1 31 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 33% 52%
5 of 32 16% 9 28 1 28 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 81%
4 of 32 13% 8 29 1 25 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 95%
0 of 32 0% 4 33 1 13 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes EPL Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ***denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League