The Cubs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Cubs play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Win Next Game | 12 | 7 | 11% | 14% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 45% |
| Current Standings | 11 | 7 | 11% | 14% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 46% |
| Lose Next Game | 11 | 8 | 10% | 14% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 46% |
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Cubs Sweeps | 14 | 7 | 13% | 14% | 12% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 44% |
| Current Standings | 11 | 7 | 11% | 14% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 46% |
| Padres Sweeps | 11 | 10 | 8% | 14% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 48% |
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 144 of 144 | 100% | 155 | 7 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 140 of 144 | 97% | 151 | 11 | >99% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 130 of 144 | 90% | 141 | 21 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 120 of 144 | 83% | 131 | 31 | 98% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 117 of 144 | 81% | 128 | 34 | 95% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 116 of 144 | 81% | 127 | 35 | 94% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 115 of 144 | 80% | 126 | 36 | 91% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 114 of 144 | 79% | 125 | 37 | 90% | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 113 of 144 | 78% | 124 | 38 | 87% | 13% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 112 of 144 | 78% | 123 | 39 | 84% | 16% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 111 of 144 | 77% | 122 | 40 | 81% | 19% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 110 of 144 | 76% | 121 | 41 | 76% | 23% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 109 of 144 | 76% | 120 | 42 | 72% | 27% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 108 of 144 | 75% | 119 | 43 | 68% | 30% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 107 of 144 | 74% | 118 | 44 | 63% | 34% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 106 of 144 | 74% | 117 | 45 | 57% | 39% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 105 of 144 | 73% | 116 | 46 | 52% | 42% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 104 of 144 | 72% | 115 | 47 | 47% | 46% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 103 of 144 | 72% | 114 | 48 | 42% | 48% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 102 of 144 | 71% | 113 | 49 | 36% | 51% | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 101 of 144 | 70% | 112 | 50 | 30% | 53% | 12% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 100 of 144 | 69% | 111 | 51 | 27% | 52% | 15% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 99 of 144 | 69% | 110 | 52 | 22% | 53% | 18% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 98 of 144 | 68% | 109 | 53 | 18% | 51% | 21% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 97 of 144 | 67% | 108 | 54 | 15% | 50% | 24% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 96 of 144 | 67% | 107 | 55 | 12% | 47% | 27% | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 95 of 144 | 66% | 106 | 56 | 9% | 44% | 29% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 94 of 144 | 65% | 105 | 57 | 7% | 41% | 32% | 14% | 6% | 1% | <1% |
| 93 of 144 | 65% | 104 | 58 | 5% | 36% | 34% | 15% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 92 of 144 | 64% | 103 | 59 | 4% | 32% | 36% | 16% | 10% | 2% | <1% |
| 91 of 144 | 63% | 102 | 60 | 3% | 28% | 37% | 17% | 12% | 3% | <1% |
| 90 of 144 | 63% | 101 | 61 | 2% | 23% | 38% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 1% |
| 89 of 144 | 62% | 100 | 62 | 1% | 20% | 37% | 16% | 17% | 7% | 1% |
| 88 of 144 | 61% | 99 | 63 | 1% | 16% | 37% | 16% | 19% | 9% | 2% |
| 87 of 144 | 60% | 98 | 64 | 1% | 14% | 37% | 15% | 21% | 11% | 3% |
| 86 of 144 | 60% | 97 | 65 | <1% | 10% | 35% | 13% | 23% | 14% | 4% |
| 85 of 144 | 59% | 96 | 66 | <1% | 8% | 33% | 11% | 24% | 17% | 7% |
| 84 of 144 | 58% | 95 | 67 | <1% | 6% | 31% | 11% | 23% | 20% | 9% |
| 83 of 144 | 58% | 94 | 68 | <1% | 4% | 29% | 9% | 22% | 22% | 13% |
| 82 of 144 | 57% | 93 | 69 | <1% | 3% | 27% | 6% | 23% | 24% | 17% |
| 81 of 144 | 56% | 92 | 70 | <1% | 3% | 26% | 5% | 19% | 27% | 21% |
| 80 of 144 | 56% | 91 | 71 | <1% | 2% | 24% | 4% | 17% | 27% | 27% |
| 79 of 144 | 55% | 90 | 72 | <1% | 1% | 21% | 3% | 14% | 27% | 34% |
| 78 of 144 | 54% | 89 | 73 | <1% | 1% | 18% | 2% | 12% | 26% | 41% |
| 77 of 144 | 53% | 88 | 74 | <1% | <1% | 16% | 2% | 10% | 25% | 48% |
| 76 of 144 | 53% | 87 | 75 | <1% | <1% | 14% | 1% | 8% | 22% | 55% |
| 75 of 144 | 52% | 86 | 76 | <1% | <1% | 12% | <1% | 6% | 20% | 61% |
| 74 of 144 | 51% | 85 | 77 | <1% | <1% | 10% | <1% | 4% | 15% | 70% |
| 73 of 144 | 51% | 84 | 78 | <1% | <1% | 9% | <1% | 3% | 14% | 74% |
| 72 of 144 | 50% | 83 | 79 | <1% | <1% | 8% | <1% | 2% | 10% | 80% |
| 71 of 144 | 49% | 82 | 80 | <1% | <1% | 7% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 84% |
| 70 of 144 | 49% | 81 | 81 | <1% | <1% | 5% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 89% |
| 69 of 144 | 48% | 80 | 82 | <1% | <1% | 5% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 91% |
| 68 of 144 | 47% | 79 | 83 | <1% | <1% | 4% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 93% |
| 67 of 144 | 47% | 78 | 84 | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 95% |
| 60 of 144 | 42% | 71 | 91 | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 99% |
| 50 of 144 | 35% | 61 | 101 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 40 of 144 | 28% | 51 | 111 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 30 of 144 | 21% | 41 | 121 | X | X | <1% | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 20 of 144 | 14% | 31 | 131 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 10 of 144 | 7% | 21 | 141 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 144 | 0% | 11 | 151 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |