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Sun Sep 13 12:45 am

MLB - Week 25 of 27

Rays What If?

The Rays What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Rays play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Rays What If?

Next Game - Astros (75‑74)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 90 59 94% X X 6% <1% ^ ^
Current Standings 89 59 93% X X 7% <1% ^ ^
Lose Next Game 89 60 89% X X 10% <1% ^ ^


Current Series - Astros (75‑74) - 1 Remaining Game

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Rays Sweeps 90 59 94% X X 6% <1% ^ ^
Current Standings 89 59 93% X X 7% <1% ^ ^
Astros Sweeps 89 60 89% X X 10% <1% ^ ^


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Best Case Scenario 96% X X 4% <1% ^ ^
Current Standings 93% X X 7% <1% ^ ^
Worst Case Scenario 88% X X 12% <1% ^ ^
Best Case Scenario
   Mets beats Yankees
   Rays beats Astros
 Worst Case Scenario
   Yankees beats Mets
   Astros beats Rays
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
14 of 14 100% 103 59 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 102 60 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 14 86% 101 61 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 14 79% 100 62 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 14 71% 99 63 >99% X X <1% ^ ^ ^
9 of 14 64% 98 64 >99% X X <1% ^ ^ ^
8 of 14 57% 97 65 >99% X X <1% ^ ^ ^
7 of 14 50% 96 66 98% X X 2% ^ ^ ^
6 of 14 43% 95 67 91% X X 9% ^ ^ ^
5 of 14 36% 94 68 73% X X 27% <1% ^ ^
4 of 14 29% 93 69 45% X X 54% 1% ^ ^
3 of 14 21% 92 70 19% X X 76% 5% ^ ^
2 of 14 14% 91 71 5% X X 75% 20% ^ ^
1 of 14 7% 90 72 <1% X X 52% 47% ^ ^
0 of 14 0% 89 73 X X X 25% 75% ^ ^
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs