The Red Sox What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Red Sox play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Win Next Game | 9 | 9 | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 60% |
| Current Standings | 8 | 9 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 61% |
| Lose Next Game | 8 | 10 | 4% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 63% |
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Red Sox Sweeps | 11 | 9 | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 58% |
| Current Standings | 8 | 9 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 61% |
| Rays Sweeps | 8 | 12 | 3% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 64% |
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 145 of 145 | 100% | 153 | 9 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 140 of 145 | 97% | 148 | 14 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 130 of 145 | 90% | 138 | 24 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 120 of 145 | 83% | 128 | 34 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 113 of 145 | 78% | 121 | 41 | 95% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 112 of 145 | 77% | 120 | 42 | 92% | 7% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 111 of 145 | 77% | 119 | 43 | 90% | 8% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 110 of 145 | 76% | 118 | 44 | 87% | 11% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 109 of 145 | 75% | 117 | 45 | 84% | 14% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 108 of 145 | 74% | 116 | 46 | 79% | 17% | 1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 107 of 145 | 74% | 115 | 47 | 75% | 20% | 1% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 106 of 145 | 73% | 114 | 48 | 70% | 23% | 2% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 105 of 145 | 72% | 113 | 49 | 64% | 26% | 3% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 104 of 145 | 72% | 112 | 50 | 57% | 30% | 4% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 103 of 145 | 71% | 111 | 51 | 52% | 32% | 5% | 11% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 102 of 145 | 70% | 110 | 52 | 46% | 35% | 6% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 101 of 145 | 70% | 109 | 53 | 39% | 37% | 7% | 15% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 100 of 145 | 69% | 108 | 54 | 33% | 38% | 10% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 99 of 145 | 68% | 107 | 55 | 28% | 38% | 11% | 21% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 98 of 145 | 68% | 106 | 56 | 23% | 38% | 14% | 22% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 97 of 145 | 67% | 105 | 57 | 17% | 37% | 15% | 26% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 96 of 145 | 66% | 104 | 58 | 13% | 34% | 17% | 27% | 7% | 1% | <1% |
| 95 of 145 | 66% | 103 | 59 | 10% | 32% | 19% | 29% | 10% | 1% | <1% |
| 94 of 145 | 65% | 102 | 60 | 7% | 29% | 20% | 29% | 12% | 2% | <1% |
| 93 of 145 | 64% | 101 | 61 | 5% | 25% | 22% | 30% | 15% | 3% | <1% |
| 92 of 145 | 63% | 100 | 62 | 4% | 22% | 23% | 29% | 18% | 4% | <1% |
| 91 of 145 | 63% | 99 | 63 | 2% | 20% | 23% | 27% | 21% | 6% | 1% |
| 90 of 145 | 62% | 98 | 64 | 1% | 16% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 8% | 1% |
| 89 of 145 | 61% | 97 | 65 | 1% | 13% | 23% | 24% | 28% | 10% | 2% |
| 88 of 145 | 61% | 96 | 66 | 1% | 10% | 22% | 21% | 29% | 14% | 3% |
| 87 of 145 | 60% | 95 | 67 | <1% | 8% | 21% | 18% | 30% | 17% | 5% |
| 86 of 145 | 59% | 94 | 68 | <1% | 6% | 20% | 16% | 29% | 21% | 7% |
| 85 of 145 | 59% | 93 | 69 | <1% | 5% | 19% | 13% | 30% | 24% | 11% |
| 84 of 145 | 58% | 92 | 70 | <1% | 4% | 17% | 11% | 28% | 27% | 14% |
| 83 of 145 | 57% | 91 | 71 | <1% | 2% | 16% | 8% | 26% | 29% | 19% |
| 82 of 145 | 57% | 90 | 72 | <1% | 2% | 14% | 6% | 24% | 30% | 25% |
| 81 of 145 | 56% | 89 | 73 | <1% | 1% | 12% | 5% | 19% | 30% | 32% |
| 80 of 145 | 55% | 88 | 74 | <1% | 1% | 11% | 4% | 17% | 30% | 38% |
| 79 of 145 | 54% | 87 | 75 | <1% | 1% | 10% | 2% | 14% | 28% | 46% |
| 78 of 145 | 54% | 86 | 76 | <1% | <1% | 8% | 2% | 11% | 26% | 53% |
| 77 of 145 | 53% | 85 | 77 | <1% | <1% | 8% | 1% | 8% | 23% | 59% |
| 76 of 145 | 52% | 84 | 78 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 1% | 6% | 20% | 67% |
| 75 of 145 | 52% | 83 | 79 | <1% | <1% | 5% | <1% | 4% | 17% | 73% |
| 74 of 145 | 51% | 82 | 80 | <1% | <1% | 5% | <1% | 3% | 14% | 78% |
| 73 of 145 | 50% | 81 | 81 | <1% | <1% | 4% | <1% | 2% | 11% | 83% |
| 72 of 145 | 50% | 80 | 82 | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 88% |
| 71 of 145 | 49% | 79 | 83 | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 91% |
| 70 of 145 | 48% | 78 | 84 | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 93% |
| 69 of 145 | 48% | 77 | 85 | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 95% |
| 60 of 145 | 41% | 68 | 94 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 50 of 145 | 34% | 58 | 104 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 40 of 145 | 28% | 48 | 114 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 30 of 145 | 21% | 38 | 124 | X | X | <1% | X | X | X | >99% |
| 20 of 145 | 14% | 28 | 134 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 10 of 145 | 7% | 18 | 144 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 145 | 0% | 8 | 154 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |