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Sun Apr 14 9:15 pm

MLS - Week 9 of 35

Revolution What If?

The Revolution What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Revolution play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Revolution What If?

Next Game - Toronto FC (3‑4‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 2 5 1 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 95%
Current Standings 1 5 1 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 96%
Lose Next Game 1 6 1 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 97%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 95%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 96%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 97%
Best Case Scenario
   Revolution beats Toronto FC
 Worst Case Scenario
   Toronto FC beats Revolution
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
27 of 27 100% 28 5 1 85 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 27 93% 26 7 1 79 95% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 27 89% 25 8 1 76 87% 13% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
23 of 27 85% 24 9 1 73 73% 26% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
22 of 27 81% 23 10 1 70 53% 40% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
21 of 27 78% 22 11 1 67 32% 47% 19% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 27 74% 21 12 1 64 14% 41% 33% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 27 70% 20 13 1 61 4% 24% 40% 25% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 27 67% 19 14 1 58 1% 8% 28% 37% 21% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 27 63% 18 15 1 55 <1% 1% 10% 28% 34% 20% 5% 1% <1% <1%
16 of 27 59% 17 16 1 52 <1% <1% 1% 10% 27% 35% 21% 6% 1% <1%
15 of 27 56% 16 17 1 49 <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 25% 35% 23% 7% 1%
14 of 27 52% 15 18 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 21% 34% 26% 11%
13 of 27 48% 14 19 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 33% 44%
12 of 27 44% 13 20 1 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 81%
10 of 27 37% 11 22 1 34 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 27 19% 6 27 1 19 X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 27 0% 1 32 1 4 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs