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Sun Mar 15 9:30 pm

MLS - Week 5 of 38

Revolution What If?

The Revolution What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Revolution play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Revolution What If?

Next Game - St. Louis City SC (0‑3‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 2 2 0 6 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 30%
Current Standings 1 2 0 3 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 40%
Lose Next Game 1 3 0 3 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 46%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 30%
Current Standings 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 40%
Worst Case Scenario 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 46%
Best Case Scenario
   Revolution beats St. Louis City SC
 Worst Case Scenario
   St. Louis City SC beats Revolution
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
31 of 31 100% 32 2 0 96 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 31 97% 31 3 0 93 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 31 81% 26 8 0 78 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
21 of 31 68% 22 12 0 66 95% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 31 65% 21 13 0 63 86% 14% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 31 61% 20 14 0 60 65% 30% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 31 58% 19 15 0 57 33% 44% 19% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 31 55% 18 16 0 54 7% 28% 37% 21% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 31 52% 17 17 0 51 <1% 4% 17% 31% 29% 14% 4% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 31 48% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% 1% 5% 16% 29% 29% 15% 4% 1%
14 of 31 45% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 13% 26% 30% 27%
13 of 31 42% 14 20 0 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 88%
10 of 31 32% 11 23 0 33 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 31 16% 6 28 0 18 X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 31 0% 1 33 0 3 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs