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MLS Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLS Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLS Post Season Probabilities

   Record  Current Series MLS Cup Winner MLS Cup Conference Championship Round 2 Round 1
Team Conference W L T Pts
D.C. United Eastern 17 9 7 58   17% 33% 57% 100% 100%
Galaxy Western 17 6 10 61   16% 31% 56% 100% 100%
Sounders Western 19 10 4 61   14% 27% 54% 100% 100%
Revolution Eastern 16 13 4 52   10% 22% 49% 100% 100%
Real Salt Lake Western 15 8 11 56   9% 17% 35% 76% 100%
FC Dallas Western 16 11 6 54   8% 17% 37% 81% 100%
Sporting KC Eastern 14 12 7 49   8% 17% 37% 76% 100%
Crew Eastern 13 10 10 49   8% 16% 32% 68% 100%
Red Bulls Eastern 12 10 11 47   6% 12% 26% 57% 100%
Whitecaps Western 11 8 14 47   3% 8% 16% 38% 89%
Timbers Western 11 9 13 46   <1% 1% 2% 5% 11%
Union Eastern 10 11 12 42   X X X X X
Toronto FC Eastern 11 14 8 41   X X X X X
Dynamo Eastern 11 16 6 39   X X X X X
Fire Eastern 5 10 18 33   X X X X X
Rapids Western 8 17 8 32   X X X X X
Chivas USA Western 8 19 6 30   X X X X X
Earthquakes Western 6 15 12 30   X X X X X
Impact Eastern 6 18 9 27   X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot