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MLS Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLS Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLS Post Season Probabilities

   Record  Current Series MLS Cup Winner MLS Cup Conference Championship Round 2 Round 1
Team Conference W L T Pts
Galaxy Western 15 5 9 54   15% 28% 54% 100% 100%
Sounders Western 17 8 3 54   15% 28% 54% 100% 100%
D.C. United Eastern 14 9 6 48   14% 29% 54% 99% >99%
Real Salt Lake Western 13 6 10 49   13% 25% 49% 97% >99%
Sporting KC Eastern 13 10 6 45   10% 21% 42% 84% 95%
Revolution Eastern 13 13 3 42   6% 13% 29% 63% 81%
Red Bulls Eastern 10 8 11 41   6% 13% 26% 52% 72%
Crew Eastern 10 9 10 40   5% 11% 21% 44% 62%
FC Dallas Western 13 10 6 45   5% 10% 23% 55% 95%
Toronto FC Eastern 10 11 7 37   3% 7% 14% 29% 43%
Union Eastern 9 9 11 38   3% 5% 10% 22% 36%
Timbers Western 9 8 12 39   2% 6% 12% 31% 65%
Whitecaps Western 8 8 13 37   1% 3% 7% 16% 36%
Dynamo Eastern 9 13 6 33   <1% 1% 2% 5% 9%
Fire Eastern 5 7 16 31   <1% <1% 1% 2% 3%
Rapids Western 8 14 7 31   <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
Earthquakes Western 6 12 10 28   <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Chivas USA Western 6 17 6 24   X X X X X
Impact Eastern 6 17 6 24   X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot