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MLS Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLS Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLS Post Season Probabilities

   Record  Current Series MLS Cup Winner MLS Cup Conference Championship Round 2 Round 1
Team Conference W L T Pts
FC Dallas Western 5 1 1 16   10% 19% 36% 67% 79%
Sporting KC Eastern 3 1 2 11   10% 18% 35% 63% 73%
Crew Eastern 3 1 2 11   9% 17% 33% 61% 72%
Real Salt Lake Western 3 0 4 13   8% 17% 32% 61% 73%
Sounders Western 4 2 1 13   7% 14% 29% 56% 68%
Rapids Western 3 1 2 11   7% 14% 28% 55% 67%
Toronto FC Eastern 3 3 0 9   7% 14% 28% 54% 65%
Galaxy Western 2 1 2 8   7% 14% 27% 53% 65%
D.C. United Eastern 2 2 2 8   6% 10% 22% 43% 54%
Whitecaps Western 2 2 3 9   4% 9% 18% 38% 49%
Dynamo Eastern 2 3 1 7   4% 8% 16% 35% 45%
Revolution Eastern 2 3 2 8   4% 8% 16% 33% 43%
Union Eastern 1 2 5 8   4% 8% 15% 32% 42%
Red Bulls Eastern 1 2 4 7   4% 7% 15% 32% 42%
Fire Eastern 0 1 6 6   3% 6% 14% 29% 39%
Earthquakes Western 0 2 3 3   2% 5% 11% 26% 35%
Chivas USA Western 1 3 3 6   2% 5% 11% 25% 35%
Timbers Western 0 3 4 4   1% 4% 8% 20% 29%
Impact Eastern 0 4 3 3   1% 3% 7% 17% 25%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot