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MLS Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLS Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLS Post Season Probabilities

   Record  Current Series MLS Cup Winner MLS Cup Conference Championship Round 2 Round 1
Team Conference W L T Pts
D.C. United Eastern 13 8 4 43   14% 27% 52% 97% 99%
Sporting KC Eastern 12 7 6 42   14% 26% 51% 95% 99%
Sounders Western 14 7 3 45   13% 26% 51% 95% >99%
Galaxy Western 12 5 7 43   13% 25% 49% 94% >99%
Real Salt Lake Western 11 5 9 42   11% 21% 42% 83% 98%
Toronto FC Eastern 9 8 6 33   8% 17% 34% 71% 86%
FC Dallas Western 12 7 6 42   8% 16% 33% 71% 94%
Crew Eastern 8 8 9 33   6% 12% 23% 49% 74%
Whitecaps Western 7 5 12 33   4% 8% 15% 34% 58%
Red Bulls Eastern 7 7 10 31   3% 6% 13% 28% 44%
Revolution Eastern 9 12 3 30   2% 5% 11% 25% 40%
Union Eastern 7 9 9 30   2% 4% 8% 19% 32%
Timbers Western 7 8 10 31   1% 3% 6% 14% 28%
Fire Eastern 4 6 14 26   1% 2% 4% 10% 17%
Rapids Western 8 11 6 30   <1% 1% 2% 5% 10%
Dynamo Eastern 7 13 4 25   <1% 1% 2% 5% 10%
Earthquakes Western 6 10 7 25   <1% 1% 2% 5% 10%
Chivas USA Western 6 12 6 24   <1% <1% <1% 1% 1%
Impact Eastern 4 15 5 17   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot