The Most Important Games for the Air Force Falcons are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Falcons final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Air Force Falcons fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |||
| Air Force (3‑13) vs Nevada (9‑7) |
0 | Air Force Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 10% | 32% | 55% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 27% | 66% | ||
| Nevada Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 27% | 67% | ||
| New Mexico (14‑3) vs San José State (8‑10) |
0 | New Mexico Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 27% | 66% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 27% | 66% | ||
| San José State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 27% | 68% | ||
| San Diego St. (10‑4) vs Colorado St. (10‑6) |
0 | San Diego St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 27% | 66% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 27% | 66% | ||
| Colorado St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 26% | 66% | ||
| UNLV (9‑7) vs Utah St. (16‑1) |
0 | UNLV Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 27% | 66% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 27% | 66% | ||
| Utah St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 27% | 66% | ||
| Wyoming (9‑7) vs Boise St. (12‑5) |
0 | Wyoming Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 27% | 66% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 27% | 66% | ||
| Boise St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 26% | 66% | ||