The Most Important Games for the Air Force Falcons are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Falcons final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Air Force Falcons fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |||
| Air Force (1‑3) vs Boise St. (3‑1) |
5 | Air Force Wins | <1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 17% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 24% | ||
| Boise St. Wins | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 25% | ||
| San José State (1‑5) vs New Mexico (3‑1) |
1 | San José State Wins | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 17% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 24% | ||
| New Mexico Wins | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 21% | 24% | ||
| Utah St. (4‑0) vs Wyoming (3‑1) |
0 | Utah St. Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 19% | 24% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 24% | ||
| Wyoming Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 21% | 25% | ||
| Fresno St. (2‑2) vs San Diego St. (2‑1) |
0 | Fresno St. Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 20% | 25% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 24% | ||
| San Diego St. Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 24% | ||
| Colorado St. (3‑1) vs Nevada (4‑1) |
0 | Colorado St. Wins | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 23% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 24% | ||
| Nevada Wins | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 23% | ||