The St. Francis Red Flash What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how St. Francis plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 10% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 4% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 6% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 7% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | 3% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Best Case Scenario | 10% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 4% |
| Current Standings | 6% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 7% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 3% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% |
|
Best Case Scenario St. Francis beats Central Conn. |
Worst Case Scenario Central Conn. beats St. Francis |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | ||
| 16 of 16 | 100% | 16 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 15 of 16 | 94% | 15 | 1 | 99% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 16 | 88% | 14 | 2 | 95% | 5% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 16 | 81% | 13 | 3 | 76% | 24% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 16 | 75% | 12 | 4 | 44% | 51% | 5% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 16 | 69% | 11 | 5 | 15% | 56% | 27% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 16 | 63% | 10 | 6 | 2% | 28% | 50% | 18% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 | 7 | <1% | 4% | 32% | 46% | 16% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 | 8 | X | <1% | 5% | 32% | 44% | 17% | 2% | <1% | ^ |
| 7 of 16 | 44% | 7 | 9 | X | X | <1% | 4% | 29% | 44% | 20% | 3% | <1% |
| 6 of 16 | 38% | 6 | 10 | X | X | X | <1% | 4% | 27% | 46% | 21% | 2% |
| 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 | 11 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 4% | 30% | 48% | 18% |
| 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 | 12 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 6% | 43% | 50% |
| 3 of 16 | 19% | 3 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 18% | 81% |
| 2 of 16 | 13% | 2 | 14 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 4% | 96% |
| 1 of 16 | 6% | 1 | 15 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 16 | 0% | 0 | 16 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |