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Sun Jan 12 11:45 am

SEC Basketball - Week 11 of 18

Auburn What If?

The Auburn Tigers What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Auburn plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Auburn What If?

Next Game - Mississippi St. (14‑2)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Next Game 4 0 36% 22% 15% 10% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 3 0 31% 21% 15% 11% 8% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 3 1 20% 18% 15% 13% 10% 8% 6% 4% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Best Case Scenario 38% 23% 14% 10% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 31% 21% 15% 11% 8% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 20% 18% 15% 13% 11% 8% 6% 4% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Auburn beats Mississippi St.
   Missouri beats Florida
   Georgia beats Tennessee
 Worst Case Scenario
   Mississippi St. beats Auburn
   Florida beats Missouri
   Tennessee beats Georgia
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
15 of 15 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 17 1 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 16 2 98% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 15 80% 15 3 88% 12% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 15 73% 14 4 58% 35% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 15 67% 13 5 21% 42% 28% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 15 60% 12 6 2% 14% 32% 31% 15% 4% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 15 53% 11 7 <1% 1% 6% 20% 31% 26% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 15 47% 10 8 <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 22% 31% 25% 10% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 15 40% 9 9 X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 25% 34% 22% 7% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
5 of 15 33% 8 10 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 32% 32% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1%
4 of 15 27% 7 11 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 28% 36% 21% 5% <1% <1%
3 of 15 20% 6 12 X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 6% 25% 39% 24% 6% <1%
2 of 15 13% 5 13 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 5% 24% 42% 25% 4%
1 of 15 7% 4 14 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 6% 29% 46% 19%
0 of 15 0% 3 15 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 9% 44% 47%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament