The Most Important Games for the Marshall Thundering Herd are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Thundering Herd final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Marshall Thundering Herd fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Marshall Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10** First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Marshall (10‑8) vs James Madison (9‑8) |
39 | Marshall Wins | 6% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 3% | <1% | ||
| James Madison Wins | 2% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 3% | <1% | ||
| UL Monroe (4‑14) vs Troy (10‑6) |
2 | UL Monroe Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 3% | <1% | ||
| Troy Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Georgia St. (7‑10) vs Texas State (9‑8) |
1 | Georgia St. Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 3% | <1% | ||
| Texas State Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | <1% | ||
| South Alabama (12‑5) vs Southern Miss (8‑10) |
1 | South Alabama Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 3% | <1% | ||
| Southern Miss Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | <1% | ||
| Old Dominion (6‑9) vs Appalachian St.App.St. (9‑7) |
1 | Old Dominion Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 3% | <1% | ||
| Appalachian St.App.St. Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | <1% | ||
| Georgia Southern (8‑9) vs Coastal Carolina (8‑9) |
0 | Georgia Southern Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 3% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 3% | <1% | ||
| Coastal Carolina Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | <1% | ||
| Arkansas St. (12‑5) vs LA Lafayette (5‑12) |
0 | Arkansas St. Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 3% | <1% | ||
| LA Lafayette Wins | 5% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 3% | <1% | ||