The Most Important Games for the Marshall Thundering Herd are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Thundering Herd final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Marshall Thundering Herd fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Marshall Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10** First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Marshall (16‑12) vs Appalachian St.App.St. (17‑10) |
37 | Marshall Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 16% | 36% | 43% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 63% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Appalachian St.App.St. Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 79% | 10% | 3% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| UL Monroe (7‑21) vs Arkansas St. (19‑9) |
25 | UL Monroe Wins | <1% | <1% | 3% | 17% | 14% | 55% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 63% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Arkansas St. Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 64% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Coastal Carolina (9‑19) vs Troy (17‑10) |
11 | Coastal Carolina Wins | <1% | <1% | 4% | 9% | 17% | 60% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 63% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Troy Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 19% | 64% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Georgia Southern (14‑14) vs James Madison (18‑10) |
2 | Georgia Southern Wins | <1% | <1% | 2% | 7% | 22% | 58% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 63% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| James Madison Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 17% | 65% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Old Dominion (9‑17) vs Georgia St. (12‑16) |
1 | Old Dominion Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 61% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 63% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Georgia St. Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 19% | 65% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Southern Miss (10‑19) vs LA Lafayette (10‑18) |
1 | Southern Miss Wins | <1% | <1% | 2% | 7% | 18% | 64% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 63% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| LA Lafayette Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 19% | 62% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Texas State (14‑14) vs South Alabama (19‑9) |
0 | Texas State Wins | <1% | <1% | 2% | 7% | 16% | 65% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 63% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| South Alabama Wins | X | <1% | 1% | 8% | 20% | 61% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||