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Thu Nov 21 10:30 pm

Sunbelt Basketball - Week 3 of 17

Marshall What If?

The Marshall Thundering Herd What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Marshall plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Marshall What If?

Next Game - Southern Miss (2‑3)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
Win Next Game 1 0 10% 11% 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 2%
Current Standings 0 0 9% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 3%
Lose Next Game 0 1 6% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 4%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
Best Case Scenario 12% 10% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 2%
Current Standings 9% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 3%
Worst Case Scenario 6% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5%
Best Case Scenario
   LA Lafayette beats Appalachian St.
   Coastal Carolina beats Arkansas St.
   Marshall beats Southern Miss
 Worst Case Scenario
   Appalachian St. beats LA Lafayette
   Arkansas St. beats Coastal Carolina
   Southern Miss beats Marshall
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
18 of 18 100% 18 0 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 98% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 85% 15% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 54% 41% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 21% 49% 26% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 4% 28% 43% 22% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 <1% 6% 27% 40% 22% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 <1% <1% 5% 23% 40% 25% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% <1% <1% 4% 20% 38% 29% 9% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X X <1% <1% 3% 15% 36% 32% 12% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X X <1% <1% 1% 12% 33% 35% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X X <1% <1% 1% 9% 28% 38% 20% 4% <1% <1%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X X X <1% <1% 7% 27% 39% 22% 5% <1%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 26% 40% 24% 4%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 28% 46% 21%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X X X X <1% 7% 42% 52%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 19% 81%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X 5% 95%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament