The Most Important Games for the Texas State Bobcats are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Bobcats final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Texas State Bobcats fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Texas State Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Texas State (18‑12) vs Appalachian St.App. St. (19‑11) |
661 | Texas State Wins | <1% | 2% | 21% | 15% | 35% | 6% | 20% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Appalachian St.App. St. Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | 46% | 54% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Southern Miss (15‑15) vs South Alabama (21‑9) |
451 | Southern Miss Wins | <1% | 3% | 32% | 14% | X | X | 23% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| South Alabama Wins | X | <1% | 2% | 6% | 25% | 4% | 37% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| LA Lafayette (10‑20) vs Arkansas St. (19‑11) |
312 | LA Lafayette Wins | <1% | 4% | 16% | 18% | 12% | X | 23% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Arkansas St. Wins | X | <1% | 9% | 5% | 19% | 4% | 35% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Georgia Southern (14‑15) vs Marshall (19‑11) |
142 | Georgia Southern Wins | <1% | 4% | 15% | 4% | 16% | 12% | 23% | 26% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Marshall Wins | X | <1% | 10% | 9% | 18% | X | 36% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| UL Monroe (4‑25) vs Troy (19‑11) |
139 | UL Monroe Wins | 1% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 15% | X | 33% | 26% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Troy Wins | X | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| James Madison (17‑13) vs Coastal Carolina (18‑12) |
131 | James Madison Wins | <1% | 1% | 16% | 5% | 28% | X | X | 50% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Coastal Carolina Wins | <1% | 1% | 5% | 11% | 5% | 7% | 71% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Georgia St. (10‑20) vs Old Dominion (10‑20) |
0 | Georgia St. Wins | <1% | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||
| Old Dominion Wins | <1% | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ||