The Most Important Games for the Texas State Bobcats are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Bobcats final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Texas State Bobcats fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Texas State Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Texas State (14‑11) vs Troy (16‑8) |
381 | Texas State Wins | 1% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 18% | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Troy Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 21% | 20% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| UL Monroe (4‑19) vs Arkansas St. (14‑10) |
68 | UL Monroe Wins | 1% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 13% | 14% | 18% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Arkansas St. Wins | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 17% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Old Dominion (7‑17) vs Marshall (15‑8) |
56 | Old Dominion Wins | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 19% | 16% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Marshall Wins | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 21% | 17% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| LA Lafayette (8‑16) vs Coastal Carolina (14‑11) |
46 | LA Lafayette Wins | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Coastal Carolina Wins | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 15% | 21% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Georgia Southern (13‑11) vs Appalachian St.App. St. (16‑9) |
36 | Georgia Southern Wins | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 19% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Appalachian St.App. St. Wins | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 22% | 17% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| James Madison (11‑13) vs Georgia St. (9‑15) |
19 | James Madison Wins | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Georgia St. Wins | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Southern Miss (12‑13) vs South Alabama (16‑7) |
13 | Southern Miss Wins | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| South Alabama Wins | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 21% | 17% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||