The Most Important Games for the Texas State Bobcats are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Bobcats final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Texas State Bobcats fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Texas State Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Texas State (7‑6) vs South Alabama (9‑3) |
187 | Texas State Wins | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 4% | ||
| South Alabama Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 5% | ||
| James Madison (7‑5) vs Georgia Southern (9‑5) |
9 | James Madison Wins | 1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 4% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 4% | ||
| Georgia Southern Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 4% | ||
| Georgia St. (2‑10) vs Appalachian St.App. St. (8‑5) |
6 | Georgia St. Wins | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 5% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 4% | ||
| Appalachian St.App. St. Wins | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 4% | ||
| UL Monroe (3‑9) vs LA Lafayette (1‑10) |
5 | UL Monroe Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 4% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 4% | ||
| LA Lafayette Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 4% | ||
| Marshall (7‑4) vs Troy (6‑5) |
4 | Marshall Wins | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 4% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 4% | ||
| Troy Wins | 1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 4% | ||
| Coastal Carolina (6‑6) vs Old Dominion (4‑8) |
3 | Coastal Carolina Wins | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 4% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 4% | ||
| Old Dominion Wins | 1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 4% | ||
| Southern Miss (7‑5) vs Arkansas St. (7‑4) |
1 | Southern Miss Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 5% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 4% | ||
| Arkansas St. Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 4% | ||