The Most Important Games for the Texas State Bobcats are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Bobcats final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Texas State Bobcats fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Texas State Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10** First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Texas State (14‑14) vs South Alabama (19‑9) |
15 | Texas State Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 35% | 35% | 20% | 7% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| South Alabama Wins | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 9% | 22% | 23% | 30% | 14% | 2% | ^ | ^ | ||
| James Madison (18‑10) vs Georgia Southern (14‑14) |
10 | James Madison Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 20% | 28% | 22% | 21% | 7% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Georgia Southern Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 20% | 23% | 20% | 19% | 16% | 2% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Old Dominion (9‑17) vs Georgia St. (12‑16) |
5 | Old Dominion Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 15% | 36% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Georgia St. Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 24% | 18% | 22% | 23% | 11% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| LA Lafayette (10‑18) vs Southern Miss (10‑19) |
1 | LA Lafayette Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 18% | 24% | 21% | 28% | 8% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Southern Miss Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 21% | 30% | 22% | 15% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Troy (17‑10) vs Coastal Carolina (9‑19) |
1 | Troy Wins | X | X | X | X | X | 1% | 20% | 27% | 21% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Coastal Carolina Wins | X | X | X | X | 1% | 1% | 18% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Appalachian St.App.St. (17‑10) vs Marshall (16‑12) |
0 | Appalachian St.App.St. Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 19% | 26% | 22% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Marshall Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 20% | 28% | 21% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| UL Monroe (7‑21) vs Arkansas St. (19‑9) |
0 | UL Monroe Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Arkansas St. Wins | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 19% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||