The Most Important Games for the Texas State Bobcats are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Bobcats final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Texas State Bobcats fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Texas State Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Texas State (6‑3) vs Arkansas St. (5‑3) |
253 | Texas State Wins | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | ||
| Arkansas St. Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 2% | ||
| UL Monroe (1‑6) vs South Alabama (6‑1) |
40 | UL Monroe Wins | 8% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | ||
| South Alabama Wins | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | ||
| Troy (5‑4) vs Marshall (5‑2) |
17 | Troy Wins | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | ||
| Marshall Wins | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | ||
| Old Dominion (3‑5) vs James Madison (5‑3) |
14 | Old Dominion Wins | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | ||
| James Madison Wins | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | ||
| Georgia Southern (3‑5) vs Georgia St. (1‑7) |
11 | Georgia Southern Wins | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | ||
| Georgia St. Wins | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | ||
| LA Lafayette (1‑7) vs Southern Miss (4‑3) |
3 | LA Lafayette Wins | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | ||
| Southern Miss Wins | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | ||
| Appalachian St.App. St. (4‑4) vs Coastal Carolina (4‑3) |
0 | Appalachian St.App. St. Wins | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | ||
| Coastal Carolina Wins | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | ||