The Texas State Bobcats What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Texas State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
| Win Next Game | 11 | 7 | <1% | 2% | 21% | 15% | 35% | 6% | 20% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 10 | 7 | <1% | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Lose Next Game | 10 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 46% | 54% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 7% | 31% | 37% | 25% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | <1% | 1% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 33% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Worst Case Scenario | X | X | X | X | X | X | 46% | 54% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
|
Best Case Scenario UL Monroe beats Troy Texas State beats Appalachian St. LA Lafayette beats Arkansas St. |
Worst Case Scenario Troy beats UL Monroe Appalachian St. beats Texas State Arkansas St. beats LA Lafayette |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | ||
| 1 of 1 | 100% | 11 | 7 | <1% | 2% | 21% | 15% | 35% | 6% | 20% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 0 of 1 | 0% | 10 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 46% | 54% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |