The Most Important Games for the St. Mary's Gaels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Gaels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. St. Mary's Gaels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
St. Mary's Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
2* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
3** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
4** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
5*** First and Second Round Byes |
6*** First and Second Round Byes |
7# First Round Bye |
8# First Round Bye |
9# First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | |||
| St. Mary's (11‑1) vs Loyola Marymount (9‑4) |
181 | St. Mary's Wins | 30% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 27% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Loyola Marymount Wins | <1% | <1% | 18% | 28% | 22% | 15% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Pepperdine (5‑8) vs Gonzaga (12‑0) |
20 | Pepperdine Wins | 33% | 28% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 27% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Gonzaga Wins | <1% | <1% | 27% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | ||
| San Francisco (8‑4) vs Seattle (11‑2) |
17 | San Francisco Wins | 27% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 27% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Seattle Wins | <1% | <1% | 26% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| San Diego (5‑7) vs Pacific (9‑4) |
5 | San Diego Wins | 27% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 27% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Pacific Wins | <1% | <1% | 27% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Oregon St. (7‑6) vs Santa Clara (8‑4) |
5 | Oregon St. Wins | 28% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 27% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Santa Clara Wins | <1% | <1% | 27% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Portland (7‑6) vs Washington St. (5‑7) |
2 | Portland Wins | 27% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 27% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Washington St. Wins | <1% | <1% | 27% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | ||