The Most Important Games for the St. Mary's Gaels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Gaels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. St. Mary's Gaels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
St. Mary's Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
| 1* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
2* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
3** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
4** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
5*** First and Second Round Byes |
6*** First and Second Round Byes |
7# First Round Bye |
8# First Round Bye |
9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |||
| St. Mary's (17‑1) vs Santa Clara (14‑5) |
146 | St. Mary's Wins | 46% | 48% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 40% | 47% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Santa Clara Wins | 27% | 49% | 21% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Washington St. (8‑9) vs Gonzaga (17‑0) |
4 | Washington St. Wins | 51% | 36% | 11% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 40% | 47% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Gonzaga Wins | 38% | 49% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Loyola Marymount (11‑9) vs Portland (9‑11) |
3 | Loyola Marymount Wins | 40% | 47% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 40% | 47% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Portland Wins | 39% | 47% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| San Diego (7‑11) vs Seattle (12‑6) |
2 | San Diego Wins | 40% | 47% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 40% | 47% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Seattle Wins | 40% | 46% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Pacific (12‑8) vs Oregon St. (10‑10) |
1 | Pacific Wins | 40% | 47% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 40% | 47% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Oregon St. Wins | 40% | 47% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||