The Most Important Games for the St. Mary's Gaels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Gaels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. St. Mary's Gaels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
St. Mary's Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
| 1* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
2* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
3** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
4** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
5*** First and Second Round Byes |
6*** First and Second Round Byes |
7# First Round Bye |
8# First Round Bye |
9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |||
| St. Mary's (19‑2) vs Gonzaga (21‑0) |
152 | St. Mary's Wins | 41% | 42% | 17% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 51% | 27% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Gonzaga Wins | 6% | 58% | 33% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| San Francisco (13‑8) vs Santa Clara (16‑6) |
72 | San Francisco Wins | 19% | 58% | 20% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 51% | 27% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Santa Clara Wins | 18% | 50% | 29% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Portland (10‑12) vs Pacific (14‑8) |
8 | Portland Wins | 19% | 52% | 28% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 51% | 27% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Pacific Wins | 19% | 51% | 27% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Loyola Marymount (11‑11) vs Oregon St. (10‑12) |
6 | Loyola Marymount Wins | 19% | 51% | 27% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 51% | 27% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Oregon St. Wins | 19% | 51% | 28% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Washington St. (9‑13) vs Seattle (14‑8) |
3 | Washington St. Wins | 19% | 52% | 27% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 51% | 27% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Seattle Wins | 19% | 52% | 27% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| San Diego (9‑13) vs Pepperdine (6‑16) |
2 | San Diego Wins | 19% | 51% | 27% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 51% | 27% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Pepperdine Wins | 19% | 51% | 28% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||