The Most Important Games for the St. Mary's Gaels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Gaels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. St. Mary's Gaels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
St. Mary's Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
2* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
3** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
4** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
5*** First and Second Round Byes |
6*** First and Second Round Byes |
7# First Round Bye |
8# First Round Bye |
9# First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | |||
| St. Mary's (8‑0) vs Loyola Marymount (7‑2) |
182 | St. Mary's Wins | 28% | 23% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 24% | 20% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Loyola Marymount Wins | <1% | <1% | 16% | 19% | 18% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | ||
| Pepperdine (3‑4) vs Gonzaga (7‑0) |
22 | Pepperdine Wins | 28% | 20% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 24% | 20% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Gonzaga Wins | <1% | <1% | 24% | 21% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Oregon St. (3‑4) vs Santa Clara (6‑2) |
14 | Oregon St. Wins | 25% | 20% | 17% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 24% | 20% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Santa Clara Wins | <1% | <1% | 24% | 21% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 1% | ||
| San Diego (3‑3) vs Pacific (5‑2) |
12 | San Diego Wins | 25% | 21% | 16% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 24% | 20% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Pacific Wins | <1% | <1% | 24% | 21% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 1% | ||
| Seattle (5‑1) vs San Francisco (5‑2) |
2 | Seattle Wins | 24% | 21% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 24% | 20% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | ||
| San Francisco Wins | <1% | <1% | 25% | 21% | 16% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | ||
| Portland (5‑3) vs Washington St. (3‑4) |
0 | Portland Wins | 25% | 20% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 24% | 20% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Washington St. Wins | <1% | <1% | 24% | 21% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | ||