The Most Important Games for the St. Mary's Gaels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Gaels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. St. Mary's Gaels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
St. Mary's Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
2* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
3** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
4** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
5*** First and Second Round Byes |
6*** First and Second Round Byes |
7# First Round Bye |
8# First Round Bye |
9# First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | |||
| San Diego (4‑14) vs Washington St. (13‑5) |
36 | San Diego Wins | 28% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 27% | 22% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Washington St. Wins | 27% | 22% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Loyola Marymount (9‑8) vs Santa Clara (12‑6) |
27 | Loyola Marymount Wins | 29% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 27% | 22% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Santa Clara Wins | 26% | 21% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Pepperdine (7‑10) vs San Francisco (14‑5) |
23 | Pepperdine Wins | 28% | 23% | 17% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 27% | 22% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| San Francisco Wins | 27% | 22% | 17% | 13% | 11% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Oregon St. (13‑5) vs Gonzaga (14‑5) |
12 | Oregon St. Wins | 31% | 20% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 27% | 22% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Gonzaga Wins | 25% | 23% | 18% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Portland (5‑12) vs Pacific (6‑14) |
1 | Portland Wins | 27% | 22% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 27% | 22% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Pacific Wins | 27% | 22% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||