The Most Important Games for the St. Mary's Gaels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Gaels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. St. Mary's Gaels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
St. Mary's Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
2* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
3** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
4** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
5*** First and Second Round Byes |
6*** First and Second Round Byes |
7# First Round Bye |
8# First Round Bye |
9# First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | |||
| St. Mary's (9‑1) vs Loyola Marymount (7‑4) |
185 | St. Mary's Wins | 25% | 29% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 22% | 27% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Loyola Marymount Wins | <1% | <1% | 15% | 23% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Oregon St. (6‑6) vs Santa Clara (8‑3) |
15 | Oregon St. Wins | 22% | 28% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 22% | 27% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Santa Clara Wins | <1% | <1% | 22% | 27% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| San Diego (4‑6) vs Pacific (8‑4) |
13 | San Diego Wins | 22% | 28% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 22% | 27% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Pacific Wins | <1% | <1% | 22% | 27% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Washington St. (4‑7) vs Portland (7‑5) |
13 | Washington St. Wins | 23% | 28% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 22% | 27% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Portland Wins | <1% | <1% | 22% | 27% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Pepperdine (4‑8) vs Gonzaga (11‑0) |
9 | Pepperdine Wins | 27% | 24% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 22% | 27% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Gonzaga Wins | <1% | <1% | 23% | 27% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Seattle (9‑2) vs San Francisco (7‑4) |
8 | Seattle Wins | 23% | 27% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 22% | 27% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | ||
| San Francisco Wins | <1% | <1% | 22% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ||