St. Mary's Gaels What If?

	Resultant Record		Regular Season Finish
	W	L	1^* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes	2^* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes	3^** First, Second, and Third Round Byes	4^** First, Second, and Third Round Byes	5^*** First and Second Round Byes	6^*** First and Second Round Byes	7^# First Round Bye	8^# First Round Bye	9^# First Round Bye	10	11
Win Next Game	1	0	19%	18%	16%	14%	11%	9%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
Current Standings	0	0	19%	18%	15%	13%	11%	9%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
Lose Next Game	0	1	13%	15%	15%	14%	12%	11%	9%	6%	4%	2%	<1%

	Regular Season Finish
	1^* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes	2^* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes	3^** First, Second, and Third Round Byes	4^** First, Second, and Third Round Byes	5^*** First and Second Round Byes	6^*** First and Second Round Byes	7^# First Round Bye	8^# First Round Bye	9^# First Round Bye	10	11
Best Case Scenario	22%	19%	15%	13%	11%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
Current Standings	19%	18%	15%	13%	11%	9%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
Worst Case Scenario	13%	15%	15%	13%	13%	10%	9%	6%	4%	2%	<1%
Best Case Scenario Loyola Marymount beats San Francisco St. Mary's beats Pacific Portland beats Washington St.						Worst Case Scenario San Francisco beats Loyola Marymount Pacific beats St. Mary's Washington St. beats Portland

Notes
Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three

Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	Resultant Record		Regular Season Finish
Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	W	L	1^* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes	2^* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes	3^** First, Second, and Third Round Byes	4^** First, Second, and Third Round Byes	5^*** First and Second Round Byes	6^*** First and Second Round Byes	7^# First Round Bye	8^# First Round Bye	9^# First Round Bye	10	11
18 of 18	100%	18	0	100%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
17 of 18	94%	17	1	99%	1%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
16 of 18	89%	16	2	95%	5%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
15 of 18	83%	15	3	73%	27%	1%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
14 of 18	78%	14	4	36%	54%	10%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^
13 of 18	72%	13	5	9%	46%	39%	6%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^
12 of 18	67%	12	6	1%	16%	48%	31%	5%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^	^
11 of 18	61%	11	7	<1%	2%	20%	47%	27%	4%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^
10 of 18	56%	10	8	<1%	<1%	3%	24%	46%	24%	3%	<1%	<1%	^	^
9 of 18	50%	9	9	X	<1%	<1%	4%	26%	45%	22%	3%	<1%	<1%	^
8 of 18	44%	8	10	X	X	<1%	<1%	5%	29%	44%	19%	2%	<1%	<1%
7 of 18	39%	7	11	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	6%	33%	43%	16%	1%	<1%
6 of 18	33%	6	12	X	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	8%	37%	41%	13%	1%
5 of 18	28%	5	13	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	11%	44%	38%	7%
4 of 18	22%	4	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	1%	18%	53%	28%
3 of 18	17%	3	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	3%	35%	63%
2 of 18	11%	2	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	11%	89%
1 of 18	6%	1	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1%	99%
0 of 18	0%	0	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%

Notes
^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
Table Sorting Method
* denotes first, second, third, and fourth round byes in the post season conference tournament
** denotes first, second, and third round byes in the post season conference tournament
*** denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
# denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament

West Coast Basketball - Week 3 of 17