The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |||
| Georgia Tech (6‑4) vs N.C. State (5‑5) |
0 | Georgia Tech Wins | X | X | <1% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 7% | 7% | 26% | 13% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 22% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| N.C. State Wins | X | X | <1% | 2% | 11% | 20% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 15% | 13% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Louisville (6‑4) vs Pittsburgh (7‑3) |
0 | Louisville Wins | X | X | <1% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 15% | 7% | 6% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 22% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Pittsburgh Wins | X | X | <1% | 5% | 7% | 14% | 13% | 5% | 4% | 17% | 16% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| North Carolina (6‑4) vs Boston College (5‑5) |
0 | North Carolina Wins | X | X | 1% | 10% | 11% | 21% | 22% | 9% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 22% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Boston College Wins | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 34% | 19% | 7% | 12% | 7% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Miami (9‑1) vs Wake Forest (4‑6) |
0 | Miami Wins | X | X | X | 5% | 6% | 12% | 15% | 6% | 6% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 22% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | X | X | 2% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 2% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Virginia (5‑5) vs SMU (9‑1) |
0 | Virginia Wins | X | X | <1% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 15% | 16% | 6% | 9% | 5% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 22% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| SMU Wins | X | X | <1% | 5% | 6% | 13% | 15% | 6% | 6% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| California (5‑5) vs Stanford (3‑7) |
0 | California Wins | X | X | <1% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 22% | 12% | 3% | 9% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 22% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Stanford Wins | X | X | <1% | 6% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 6% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Duke (7‑3) vs Virginia Tech (5‑5) |
0 | Duke Wins | X | X | <1% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 24% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | <1% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 22% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||
| Virginia Tech Wins | X | X | <1% | 5% | 6% | 14% | 14% | 7% | 7% | 16% | 13% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ||