The North Carolina Tar Heels What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how North Carolina plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
| Win Next Game | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 8% | 2% | X | 86% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 3 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X | 2% | 5% | 1% | X | 62% | 8% | 3% | 14% | 5% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Lose Next Game | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 23% | 20% | 7% | 38% | 12% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
| Current Standings | X | X | X | X | X | 2% | 5% | 1% | X | 62% | 8% | 3% | 14% | 5% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
|
Best Case Scenario None |
Worst Case Scenario None |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | ||
| 1 of 1 | 100% | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 9% | 2% | X | 86% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 23% | 20% | 7% | 38% | 11% | 1% | ^ | ^ |