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Tue Nov 19 11:15 pm

Atlantic Hockey - Week 8 of 21

Army What If?

The Army Black Knights What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Army plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Army What If?

Next Game - Holy Cross (4‑9‑1)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 5**
First Round Bye
 6***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 7***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 9 10 11
Win Next Game 6 0 0 5 18 1% 5% 8% 11% 13% 15% 16% 15% 10% 3% <1%
Current Standings 5 0 0 5 15 1% 4% 7% 10% 12% 14% 15% 16% 13% 6% 1%
Lose Next Game 5 0 0 6 15 1% 2% 5% 8% 10% 14% 15% 17% 17% 8% 2%


Current Series - Holy Cross (4‑9‑1) - 1 Remaining Game

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 5**
First Round Bye
 6***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 7***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 9 10 11
Army Sweeps 6 0 0 5 18 1% 5% 8% 11% 13% 15% 16% 15% 10% 3% <1%
Current Standings 5 0 0 5 15 1% 4% 7% 10% 12% 14% 15% 16% 13% 6% 1%
Holy Cross Sweeps 5 0 0 6 15 1% 2% 5% 8% 10% 14% 15% 17% 17% 8% 2%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 5**
First Round Bye
 6***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 7***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 9 10 11
Best Case Scenario 1% 5% 8% 11% 13% 15% 16% 15% 10% 3% <1%
Current Standings 1% 4% 7% 10% 12% 14% 15% 16% 13% 6% 1%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 2% 5% 8% 10% 14% 15% 17% 17% 8% 2%
Best Case Scenario
   Army beats Holy Cross
 Worst Case Scenario
   Holy Cross beats Army
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantange
 5**
First Round Bye
 6***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 7***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantange
 9 10 11
16 of 16 100% 21 0 0 5 63 89% 11% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 16 94% 20 0 0 6 60 72% 27% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 16 88% 19 0 0 7 57 45% 47% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 16 81% 18 0 0 8 54 18% 52% 27% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 16 75% 17 0 0 9 51 5% 31% 46% 17% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 16 69% 16 0 0 10 48 <1% 9% 36% 41% 13% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 16 63% 15 0 0 11 45 <1% 1% 12% 39% 37% 10% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 16 56% 14 0 0 12 42 <1% <1% 1% 15% 41% 34% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^
8 of 16 50% 13 0 0 13 39 X <1% <1% 2% 18% 43% 31% 6% <1% <1% ^
7 of 16 44% 12 0 0 14 36 X X <1% <1% 3% 23% 45% 26% 3% <1% <1%
6 of 16 38% 11 0 0 15 33 X X <1% <1% <1% 5% 31% 45% 17% 1% <1%
5 of 16 31% 10 0 0 16 30 X X X <1% <1% 1% 11% 42% 40% 7% <1%
4 of 16 25% 9 0 0 17 27 X X X X <1% <1% 2% 22% 52% 22% 2%
3 of 16 19% 8 0 0 18 24 X X X X X <1% <1% 6% 43% 44% 7%
2 of 16 13% 7 0 0 19 21 X X X X X X <1% 1% 22% 54% 23%
1 of 16 6% 6 0 0 20 18 X X X X X X X <1% 7% 47% 47%
0 of 16 0% 5 0 0 21 15 X X X X X X X X 1% 26% 73%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament