The Most Important Games for the Penn State Nittany Lions are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Nittany Lions final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Penn State Nittany Lions fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Penn State Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
2* First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
3* First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
4* First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
5** First and Second Round Byes |
6** First and Second Round Byes |
7** First and Second Round Byes |
8** First and Second Round Byes |
9*** First Round Bye |
10*** First Round Bye |
11*** First Round Bye |
12*** First Round Bye |
13*** First Round Bye |
14*** First Round Bye |
15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | |||
| Penn State (9‑11) vs NorthwesternN. Western (9‑11) |
14 | Penn State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 12% | 16% | 19% | 21% | 21% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 37% | ||
| NorthwesternN. Western Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 21% | 47% | ||
| UCLA (14‑6) vs Oregon (8‑12) |
2 | UCLA Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 37% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 37% | ||
| Oregon Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 40% | ||
| Wisconsin (14‑6) vs Minnesota (10‑10) |
2 | Wisconsin Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 37% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 37% | ||
| Minnesota Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 21% | 38% | ||
| USC (15‑5) vs Iowa (14‑5) |
0 | USC Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 37% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 37% | ||
| Iowa Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 38% | ||
| Illinois (17‑3) vs Washington (11‑9) |
0 | Illinois Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 15% | 21% | 37% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 37% | ||
| Washington Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 37% | ||
| Michigan (18‑1) vs Michigan St. (19‑2) |
0 | Michigan Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 21% | 37% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 37% | ||
| Michigan St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 37% | ||