The Most Important Games for the Penn State Nittany Lions are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Nittany Lions final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Penn State Nittany Lions fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Penn State Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| Penn State (8‑3) vs Illinois (8‑3) |
40 | Penn State Wins | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 4% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | ||
| Illinois Wins | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | ||
| Michigan (9‑0) vs USC (9‑1) |
3 | Michigan Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| Current Probabilities | 9% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | ||
| USC Wins | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | ||
| UCLA (7‑3) vs Iowa (8‑2) |
3 | UCLA Wins | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| Current Probabilities | 9% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | ||
| Iowa Wins | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | ||
| Maryland (6‑4) vs Oregon (5‑5) |
2 | Maryland Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | ||
| Oregon Wins | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | ||
| Michigan St. (9‑1) vs Nebraska (11‑0) |
2 | Michigan St. Wins | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| Current Probabilities | 9% | 6% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | ||
| Nebraska Wins | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | ||
| Purdue (10‑1) vs Wisconsin (7‑3) |
1 | Purdue Wins | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| Current Probabilities | 9% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | ||
| Wisconsin Wins | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | ||
| Indiana (8‑3) vs Washington (7‑3) |
0 | Indiana Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 9% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | ||
| Washington Wins | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | ||
| Minnesota (5‑5) vs NorthwesternN. Western (6‑4) |
0 | Minnesota Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 9% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | ||
| NorthwesternN. Western Wins | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | ||
| Ohio St. (8‑2) vs Rutgers (5‑6) |
0 | Ohio St. Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | ||
| Rutgers Wins | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | ||