The Cincinnati Bearcats What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Cincinnati plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |
| Win Next Game | 3 | 0 | 18% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 2 | 0 | 16% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 2 | 1 | 6% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 25% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 16% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 5% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Cincinnati beats UCF Kansas beats Texas Tech Utah beats Arizona St. |
Worst Case Scenario UCF beats Cincinnati Texas Tech beats Kansas Arizona St. beats Utah |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | ||
| 7 of 7 | 100% | 9 | 0 | 88% | 12% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 7 | 86% | 8 | 1 | 49% | 39% | 11% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 7 | 71% | 7 | 2 | 9% | 31% | 34% | 19% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 7 | 57% | 6 | 3 | <1% | 2% | 12% | 27% | 31% | 20% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 7 | 43% | 5 | 4 | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 20% | 30% | 25% | 13% | 4% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 7 | 29% | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 3% | 12% | 24% | 29% | 21% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 1 of 7 | 14% | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 7% | 20% | 31% | 28% | 11% | 1% | <1% |
| 0 of 7 | 0% | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 1% | 7% | 22% | 38% | 27% | 6% |