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Sun Jan 12 2:45 pm

Bundesliga - Week 22 of 39

Bayern Munich What If?

The Bayern Munich What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bayern Munich What If?

Next Game - TSG Hoffenheim (3‑8‑5)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 13 1 3 42 95% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 12 1 3 39 95% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 12 2 3 39 91% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 98% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 95% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 83% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Mainz beats Bayer Leverkusen
   Bayern Munich beats TSG Hoffenheim
   Bayern Munich beats VfL Wolfsburg
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bayer Leverkusen beats Mainz
   TSG Hoffenheim beats Bayern Munich
   VfL Wolfsburg beats Bayern Munich
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
18 of 18 100% 30 1 3 93 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 29 2 3 90 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 28 3 3 87 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 27 4 3 84 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 26 5 3 81 97% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 25 6 3 78 90% 10% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 24 7 3 75 74% 25% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 23 8 3 72 51% 43% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 18 56% 22 9 3 69 25% 52% 21% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 18 50% 21 10 3 66 7% 36% 42% 14% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 18 44% 20 11 3 63 1% 12% 37% 36% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 18 39% 19 12 3 60 <1% 1% 12% 32% 35% 17% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 18 33% 18 13 3 57 <1% <1% 1% 8% 25% 35% 23% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
5 of 18 28% 17 14 3 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 18% 33% 29% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
4 of 18 22% 16 15 3 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 29% 35% 18% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
3 of 18 17% 15 16 3 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 27% 40% 21% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2 of 18 11% 14 17 3 45 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 27% 45% 19% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1 of 18 6% 13 18 3 42 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 34% 42% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1%
0 of 18 0% 12 19 3 39 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 10% 36% 37% 14% 2% <1% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Bundesliga Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ##  denotes Relegation Playoff